September 2015

See you in "court," Arte
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/15
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. A POINT ABOUT VIRTUOSITY AND HOW IT APPLIES TO WINNING In chess, as in baseball, and as in life, these are four different things, in approximate order of virtuosity: Having a collection of insights about a 'sport' Being able to prioritize these insights; sense of proportion Having a grasp and comprehension, a philosophy, a style Inventing new things, due to creative genius The local chessplayer, who studies all his life, might actually know 80% or 90% as much about chess as did Bobby Fischer.  He knows the third-order principles, such as, Knight-and-Pawn endings are to be played as if they... Read More
Exam Cheats, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/28/15
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. BILL BUCKLEY CAVEATS AND QUID PRO QUO's, Dept. This dude is NOT my kinda player.  True, Dr. D campaigns against the weirdly overreactive idea that HR and RBI don't matter at all.  But!  Trumbo's particular sub-category of RBI player consists of: Fairly good HR and RBI "newspaper leaderboard" numbers, with Low AVG Low BB's Crummy defense That, gentlemen, is the Wall*E flub amidst the RBI Pixar collection of Nelson Cruz enjoyability.  I'm biased against Steve Balboni, not towards him.  Mark Trumbo averages 42 walks per year and hits only .250.  This while playing in a corner, and playing the... Read More
mmmmmmmyeah I can work with that, he's thinkin
Posted by jemanji on 09/26/15
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. Young Fronkynsteen at last got two seconds to step away from the Double Slit Mag-No-Matic jumbotron.  He dropped a few '27 baseballs into the giant hopper on the Mainframe XD and downloaded the intel on Jerry DiPoto.  No, not the facts, obviously.  We learned what people think, which as any closer can tell you, is far more important than the reality. Maybe we even looked up which moves were his and which were Scioscia's / Arte's.  More than that, we surfed the chat boards and DiPoto interviews.  So, let us leave the realm of curved space, quark poltergeists and Hillary.  We enter the realm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/15
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. Normally this subject on biology (hey, Rick!  Take the steering wheel wouldja!) would be too granular to be of general interest.  But in the third section below we may get some feedback as to which topics are of general interest, and in the first section below we have an important point in logic. ......... First of all, we need to steer clear of circular reasoning.  "No REAL scientists reject evolution.  Why?  Because people who reject evolution have been brainwashed by Christians and are not real scientists."  This logic is false by definition. And it extends to the idea of "No REAL... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/15
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. This question relates to the possibility that the universe was constructed solely for the benefit of human beings.  You might or might not enjoy the issue and its implications (if you haven't locked it down already). What are your thoughts on the double-slit experiment?  And the apparent quantum-physics truth that reality only coalesces when humans look at it?  That the moment we turn our backs, it is only latent?  And so the entire universe is inherently irrational? . 30-SECOND OVERVIEW If you fire a single photon at the middle point between two separate slits in a board -- while watching... Read More
Yowch, he's ahead of 'em
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/15
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. Ketel Marte is not an SSI Best Bet.  You got that straight? And Dr. D is not above clickbait titles as a small in-joke.  Dr. D is just telling you about something new he saw last night.  Thanks for sharing.  No problem. . Yordano Ventura is that Royals kid who literally sits 98, 99 MPH in the first couple innings of any given start.  Full-on Nolan Ryan mustard gas scenario, with masks and muddy trenches and all the trimmings. Blowers emphasized, and accurately so, that the one thing a hitter doesn't want is to --- > get behind 1-2, and let Ventura throw his hook (when the batter Must... Read More
The Think Tank is now confirmed as Utterly Irrepressible
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/15
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. Dr. D observes, with a wan smile, that the Think Tank had been mostly playing along with him through the last week's "pennant race."  This makes him feel a bit like the Iraqi torturer who throws a bucket of cold water onto a passed-out victim to wake him up for more pain. Is tonight's game "live," that is, "on"?  No, it ain't.  As Rickster said, it's a game of inches.  From a pitcher's standpoint those inches are like the inches of golf, but from a hitter's standpoint those inches are like the inches of a roulette wheel.  There is way too much luck in baseball to go on a 10-game winning... Read More
Caught between two stools, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/15
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. KETEL MARTE Continues to hit everything.  He's actually better -- in terms of skill, whether it's showing up in the stats or not -- on good change speed than he is on fastballs.  He hits pull, center, off field.  He hits every pitch.  He gets on top of the ball; I think his grounder ratio is over 2.  Check me on that. Continues to swing at few pitches.  The last 14 days, even, he's well below league average.  That's a very solid sign, that at THIS point in his season there has been no loosening of the bolts on his strike zone.  Once again, "see ball hit ball" players transcend a lot of... Read More
BOGO with the Clintons?
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/15
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. Really more a stub for your own comments, if so desired :- ) ..... As I understand it, Donald Trump was recently asked "Are you going to get rid of the Muslims?"  To which he responded, LOL, "We'll be looking at that and other issues." His rival, Ben Carson, graciously pointed out that "He probably didn't process the question.  Next time he'll rebuff the suggestion," or somesuch.  I'm not a Trump supporter, but that's how I would look at it for either side.  We are talking about real-time reactions here with no preparation.  I don't judge a man by an instant-reaction that he later regrets.... Read More
17 ... 18 ... 19 ... ?!
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/15
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. By the way, was everybody here aware that Felix got his nickname from the M's blog-o-sphere?  Specifically, U.S.S. Mariner.  You could call that a blogger's dream, I think.  Imagine if Tuner made up the reference to Russell Wilson as "First Name Russell" and then for the next 20 years listened to ESPN call him that.  :- ) As you might have noticed, Felix won his 18th game on Saturday.  With 12 games left, the Mariners could easily massage their intentions to get Felix three opportunities to win two more, rather than what he'd usually get, which is two more chances to win two more.  Will... Read More
Note well the "Postgame" headline
Posted by jemanji on 09/18/15
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. Writing Mariners, for amigos who hate watching the Mariners, presents its own challenges.  On the whole, though, it's both amusing and less difficult, therefore a gratifying pursuit.  Observe as we simply, and quite objectively, describe the action on Friday: 1.  James Paxton blew away the leadoff hitter on five fastballs.  DeShields never got a sniff. . 2.  The TV guys warned that Shin-Soo Choo was way dialed in. 2a.  K-Pax rocked, pinwheeled, and fired a screaming meemie, knee-high: If only I could do this.... Hey, if only Felix Hernandez could do it 2b.  Choo leisurely rocked,... Read More
Next Up: the Edgar.Space Needle. Is. Good.
Posted by jemanji on 09/18/15
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. As we noted in the Shout Box, one way to recapture our coziness, to lounge in a Mariners Conversation Clubhouse would be to ... GASP ... use the comments threads.  Ironic, isn't it, how attached we became to the Shout Box?  Not everything new is a negative.  ;- ) If you do deign to use a comments thread, there will be at least one guy who will chat back atcha.  Much as Dr. D admires the Shout Box, he always preferred the comments threads.  You say potayto, I say potahto. The carousel allows us to quickly scan for Jemanji posts.  That's what I use it for.  I love Jemanji posts.  Read each... Read More
M's ain't quite out of it yet ... :- O
Posted by jemanji on 09/15/15
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. Dr. D is going to use the Baseball Shout Box, rather than the Lobby Shout Box, for a few weeks.  Try and get several up a day.  We'll see where you guys go with the traffic.  As y'know, we live to serve. ..... Current playoff situation, after the M's scraped the Angels scrubs off the wall with a spatula Monday:  for the M's to force a 1-game playoff, the Rangers would have to play badly.  That's 7-and-12 badly.  While the Mariners would have to play goodly, like 13-and-4 goodly.  Also, the Twinkies have won this week, so the Twins would have to fade too. Baseball Prospectus calculates that... Read More
Dr. D maintains great composure under fire. Check the zipper
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/15
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. Biology Rick is kind enough to play straight man to our little joke: .... Q:  Here are my questions: So...Ketel Marte. You have a kid performing admirably at the ML level at age 21, but with an eye we haven't detected in his repertoire until a month and a half or so ago. Someone published a study at Fangraphs or LL a couple seasons back about how Bb/K stats amazingly stabilize after 70 PAs or so. In other words, you are what you do in 70 (or so) consecutive at bats so far as walks to K's are concerned. And walks to K's are the MLE gold standard that determines in large, very large part,... Read More
Misinformation? :: get on with it :: pink floyd
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/15
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.  In a 2009 article, Bill James wrote . The common mistake that is made by virtually all amateurs who try to dive into the analysis of baseball is to attempt to leapfrog the discussion, and go immediately to the great questions that are the ultimate goal of the analysis.   People want to begin immediately by rating players, by deciding who should be in the Hall of Fame, and by predicting who will win the National League next year.   People want to begin an analysis of fielding by figuring out who the best fielders were. The essential contribution of the serious analysts who began in the... Read More
M's, and Zeta-Jones, don't know when to quit
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/15
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. On Monday, September 7th, Dr. D plumped down onto his couch.  For the first time in 6-8 weeks, or a couple of hundred mg of opioids, or 400 misplaced Tom Scholz studio guitar picks, or several Mariner batting coaches, depending on how you measure time ... well --- > on this day, Dr. D pulled out his voice memo phone for the broadcast.  The opioids were monitored by a real doctor, ostensibly as legit post-op protocol, and not (primarily) to lower the bar on SSI shtick even further.  In HIS mind, anyway, Dr. Grumpy we mean.  Little does he know. 'Twas a real pleasure to sit down to a... Read More
Do they still call these guys "firemen"?
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/15
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. :: puts on GM hat :: . DR'S DIAGNOSIS  This bullpen = don't work.  No way no how. For my good friends who don't believe anything not expressed in alphanumeric symbols, consider that --- > the bullpen is an unpossible -0.3 WAR for the second half.  Some things should have shaken out by this time, but it's getting worse, not better.  True, the M's have spun enough on the Cheney Carousel to hit upchuck city several weeks back.   But you'd like for that centrifugal separation machine to toss loose at least some flakes of goodness.  It has NOT done so. Tight-lipped, he ticks off the problemos... Read More
... missile after missile detonates with grim accuracy
Posted by jemanji on 09/07/15
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. The M's have launched +5 missiles in a row, each one cratering a Houston or Oakland elementary school.  Let's go exploring for bugs, Hobbes!  Next up, 7 easy little walkovers against Texas and Colorado, leaving the M's +2 games over .500.  Would this leave the M's in position to fire upon the Wild Card turrets over the next rise? Toronto has, predictably, wrestled the AL East steering wheel away from the Yankee$.  The Yanks and stRangers are +7 over .500 for the two WC slots, Minnesota is +4 over chasing them, and beyond that you have the pack at .500 or worse.  What if either of the the... Read More
POTD Tony Zych
Posted by jemanji on 09/05/15
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. Q.  What were we looking for? A.  As far as Zych's TEMPLATE goes ... no, as far as RUMORED template goes, Dr. D had organized his pre-game thinking rat cheer.  We were on our toes ready to go left or right, but the "Way Draft" expectation was --- > --- > Tanner Scheppers.  A guy with a hot, heavy fastball (and little else) that batters tend to blonk on two hops to the third baseman.  As opposed to striking out at an 11+ rate, like Carson Smith does them.  There's such a thing as a fastball that controls lineups without K's.  See Colon, Bartolo.  This was the template we had in mind... Read More
BJOL has about the best you'll read on Tom Brady ... outside of SSI, naturally
Posted by jemanji on 09/04/15
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. There's a article up at BJOL.  It dissects BradyGate at a level which is several plateaus above anything else you'll read on it.  James methodically demonstrates that Roger Goodell made 11 separate questionable lapses in judgment/process before he got to the point where he decided to suspend Brady.  If you haven't yet broken down and spent the measly $3 per month to get his stuff, now's a good time to do so. Of course, Bill also did this very thing with respect to Bart Giamatti and Pete Rose.  It turned out later that Rose was VERY guilty, and that Giamatti knew this, and that the only... Read More
Hey, if the target could defend himself, would we be shooting? I think NOT
Posted by jemanji on 09/04/15
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"I think we finally got to a point where we settled things down a little bit," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "It [the bullpen]was so hectic with so many guys getting hurt or released or whatever it was and we got it to where we want it to be right now ... . Note that if you were an active GM and the field manager said that, your uncomfortable meter would bob up several notches.  Managers are supposed to be very, very eggshell walkable on this idea.  Never do you even hint that the 25-man roster is any part of the problemo.  Now, McClendon sighs and (obliquely) expresses his frustration with... Read More
When are the games?
Posted by Josh on 09/04/15

3/4/2015    12:05 PM    Padres at Mariners3/5/2015    12:05 PM    Padres at Mariners3/6/2015    12:05 PM    Mariners at Dodgers3/7/2015    12:05 PM    Mariners at White Sox3/7/2015    12:05 PM    D-backs at Mariners3/8/2015    1:05 PM    Mariners at Reds3/9/2015    1:05 PM    Indians at Mariners3/10/2015    1:10 PM    Mariners at Rockies3/11/2015    1:05 PM    Rockies at Mariners3/12/2015    12:00 PM    Mariners at Athletics3/13/2015    1:05 PM    Brewers at Mariners3/14/2015    1:10 PM    Mariners at D-backs3/15/2015    1:05 PM    Dodgers at Mariners3/17/2015    1:05 PM    Mariners at White... Read More
No more King Under the Mountain GMs, if you please
Posted by jemanji on 09/04/15
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. Dr. D QWIBBLES with the notion that the M's hawked up a deep one and loogy'ed at Jesus Montero when they sent him down.  For one thing, McClendon specifically said that it was because Montero was "rusty."  Nowadays you'd say out of rhythm, or out of synch, or you're iced.  Back in the 1960's and 1970's you'd say somebody was rusty.  In the '20' and 30's you'd say they were stale.  Call it what you will, on SSI the Think Tank advised Dr. D that this was the problemo, not the other way around.  Just a few days later, yer fergot yer own sage advice.  :- ) So why the Think Tank denizens would... Read More
M's personal fave now: A TOMMY GUN
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/15
4 Comments

. Last night, Mark Trumbo took over first base from Logan Morrison.  This created a bizarre situation in which we had a really dangerous offense, and that offense did in fact score 7 runs on the AL West leaders.  You didn't notice it, but the Seattle Blinkin' Mariners September 2015 just now fielded eight (8) solid hitters plus the catcher: POSITION OPS+, Entire 2015 Season Remark 1b 102 Ripping it up by Trumbo std's 2b 115 ss 101 Walked 2x 3b 113 On 7-year deal lf 124 Seth'ing it up still cf 103 rf 171 LOL dh 177 Guti = Miguel Cabrera, I guess c okay, you got me on this one . Let your... Read More
Can be tough to decipher without a road map
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/15

. PROPS for ROBINSON CANO Accused:  on or about July 1, Edgar Martinez took over, and Nelson Cruz took over the #3 slot in the order.  Moving Robbie to #4.  On Or About that date, Robby has been murdering AL pitchers most foully.   First half:  .250/.290/.370, or approximately Kolten Wong.  Or, Yunel Escobar has batted .270/.340/.370 over the last three years.  Second half:  .348/.412/.555.  The player to compare this to?  Perhaps "Robinson Cano." His resurrection is deliciously and wonderfully confirmed in the stat that dominates baseball, the strike zone stat, his batting EYE: 1H = 17 walks... Read More