Ackley's Projected OBP (part 1)

A fun back-and-forth going on at Mariner Central, guys with different visuals on Ackley's skill set at age 26-27.  

Of note, San-Man was the local on-the-spot for Ackley's UNC glory and sees a very feasible Brian Giles arc. 

Billy1 sez what I wuz thinking, how can you compare ANYbody, really, to Giles as the 185-to-225 lb. poster boy for the 'extra power' era. 

But Sandy is up to the volley, as is Grizzly, who notes that Chuck Knoblauch posted gigantic OPS's as a table-setter.

Marco I/O's the question that fires up the mainframe:

Elsewhere I just read a couple of lines that leads me to reflect about the importance of power hitting as well as the ability to draw walks at major league level. It might seem off topic but I guess it's fitting properly to Ackley situation - present and projected.

" seems like guys in the minors who have high OBP and low SLG have a tough time translating to the majors...
...scouts just worry that it’s difficult for a player to maintain a high walk rate if they lack power."

Any thoughts on that regard ?

1.  It is true that if you look at the active OBP leaders, the top 20 is indeed packed with mashers scary enough to induce 2-0 counts.  You look at the top five or ten and there is just no way you can throw a "get it over" fastball first pitch -- or any pitch, for that matter.

As baseball advances more and more, SP's do a better and better job of cutting out the walks to guys who aren't going XBH anyway.  The scouts are pushing a valid principle here:  a non-HR guy has to work much harder to draw a hundred walks.


2.  The fact is, that the best table-setters go for high OBP's.  Rickey in his prime posted OBP's anywhere from .400 to .460 (!).  t's not like it can't be done.

Dustin Pedroia is at .370-.380 despite the fact that he's far from a Hall of Famer.  Derek Jeter's lifetime OBP is .386 and he's been over .400 quite a few times.  Roberto Alomar, who may wind up a real good comp for Ackley, was over .400 five times.

Grizzle's comp Chuck Knoblauch showed us how a great table-setter can even get to .425-.450 OBP if he hits 10 homers, gets his walks ... and hits for a real high AVG.  Ichiro is at .375 and would always be at .425 if he cared to work the count.

Ian Kinsler, Grady Sizemore and Ray Durham are other table-setters who've had high OBP's.  Bobby Abreu is a tremendous hitter with 15-20 homers and a sky-high OBP.


3.  As you can see from the list of names above:  if you can hit .300 and draw walks, you're pretty much going to be a star.  It's very hard not to be a star with a .400 OBP.  You have to be a hippo without HR's.


4.  Most of the above guys have enough power to scare the pitchers out of "get me over" fastballs.  How many leadoff homers did Rickey hit?

The Chone Figginses, the guys who try to fingernail-scratch to .400 OBP's, are indeed becoming platypusses these days.  But Ackley will have Rickey power, I can tell you that.


5.  We have seen the pitchers' enemy and it is called Ackley.  If Ackley doesn't hit for a .400 OBP, there will never be a second-base prospect who does.  :- )


Part 2


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