I think we should just let Beltre play out his contract and take the picks. Although he SHOULD be drawing interest...he just isn't. There's only one way I deal Beltre...and that's if I can move Lopez to third and plug O-Hud in at second. But I hear he's asking for 3/30 which is nutball crackers...so I doubt it.
BBT notes that Johjima has an opt-out after this year. I didn't know that. I also can't imagine why he'd want to stay here and be miserable.
It would complicate trade talks, since Johjima would have to waive it for other teams to be interested. I realize that Seattle has a rancid taste in its mouth here, but starting catchers are hard to find. And teams know that 2008 was an unrepresentative train wreck, just as they know that about Nick Swisher's and Erik Bedard's 2008s.
Also at Bleeding Blue and Teal, Scott slides hard into second base on Adam Dunn's request for 4 x $14M.
I agree that this could be the end of M's fans hopes for Dunn. But I suppose that you also know whether I agree :- ) that giving Dunn a Richie Sexson contract FROM 4 YEARS AGO is crazy.
One commentator proposed something, um, more reasonable:
I think this might just be a negotiating ploy by Dunn’s agent. If Dunn gets an offer of 3 years $39M with a 4th year option he’ll probably take it. I don’t think he’ll sign until Abreu signs so he can ensure he gets a better contract than him, Ibanez and Bradley.
The difference being, um .... $1M per year? And that year 4 is an option?
That is the difference between ridiculous and fair? I thought that kind of difference was what was settled the last get-down-to-brass-tacks negotiation at which a contract is signed.
What is the MOST that you SSI amigos think would be fair for Adam Dunn? $10M, then? That is less than an AVERAGE player is worth, per HBT.
I'm drawing a cognitive-dissonance blank here. :- ) Because EVERYBODY around cyber-Seattle disagrees with me on Adam Dunn. I looooov eet.
It's not just that one place thinks $14M for Dunn -- Sexson money from 2005 -- is okay, and another thinks it's not okay. It's that most places think $14M is completely out of contact with common sense. I've been watching a different game, I guess.
Hey, if Dunn will take $8M per, on a year-to-year deal, and Bedard will take a discount off Carlos Silva's deal, we might have a shot at this thing.
Geoff Baker reports, from inside the M's clubhouse, that Beltre is almost certain to leave after the season. The problemo is whether you can get anything really interesting for him.
Jason at Prospect Insider opines that Beltre is intriguing to NL teams -- we have agreed with this for quite a while -- but points out that it's hard to find a team that matches up with an open 3B position.
Projecting the M's to receive two top-75 amateur players for Beltre when he walks, Jason points out that the value of a trade package would really be whatever the Giants, let's say, offered that was over-and-above two high draft picks.
That might not be as hard as you think. Matt Mangini was a top-75 pick recently; would you rather have a Giants top-10 prospect ahead of him? An org top-10 prospect is worth considerably more than the #60 pick in the draft. Don't overrate those compensatory picks, if they're not in the top 20 or so.
In other words, if you want to clear 3B for Triunfel/Tuiasosopo, and you get a real good prospect or three #8-org types, you may want to do it. But it's not like Triunfel was ready: if he were, then you'd take what you could get for Beltre. Under the circumstances, you might as well let Beltre play the year, see if you have a good ballclub, and take the consolation picks for him.
If you hadn't yet noticed, PI is putting audio files on its site -- its first being an interview with Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Just click one link and listen as though it were one of Jason's KJR segments. Awesome!
Haven't had the time, but let me know how the interview went.
image: http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/PHO/ 796322~Derek-Jeter-2003-World-Series-Game-3-Turning-Double-Play-Photofile-Posters.jpg
But I agree with you that Dunn's demands aren't THAT whacky...he's not going to get 4/56, but mostly because of the 4 part. I think he should change tactics and demand 2/32. He'd get that. And when he came out of that deal, the market would be better.
Dunn is definetly worth $13-14mil. By my rough estimate on his defense at 1B (2, 3 runs below average) he'd be worth a little over $17mil per year in last year's market as a 1B.
If he DEMANDS on playing OF though, I'd pass. Even at $14mil per. Hes a bad fit in LF at Safeco, and he wouldn't be worth playing inflated FA dollars for.
He's 2 WAR as a LF and 2.5 as a DH. Even if you assume $4.8mm in a normal market for this year, that is $9.6-$12.2 mm/yr at best.
I don't buy this claim that he's worth 2 WAR though...his defense is bad, but he's a 4 WAR hitter (in isolation) and you have to believe he's a -20 fielder to buy the 2 WAR line...that's assuming you want to buy into this nonsense about adding replacement level hitting to fielding above average like that makes any mathematical sense at all or like you can define some mythical replacement player.
I'm sorry...but that kind of illogical math still irks the heck out of me.
Dunn is not a goode fielder...but I don't think it's true that he'd not worth 14 mil. My problem is with the 4th year.