The figures are out for Bedard's 2010 contract. the word is that he gets $1.5m guaranteed, plus
- $500k at the 14, 17, 20, 23, and 26 start milestones
- $500k for 75 innings, and $600k more for each 25 IP thereafter
- $250k at 65, 90, 120, and 150 days on the roster
- In other words, about $140k for 0-12 starts ... and
- $350-$375k for each start after the 12th ... or you could say
- About $200-250k per start, average ROI
$140k for the first 12 of Erik Bedard's starts, and $350k for each one after the 12th? Wow!
=== Golf My Way dept. ===
Question comes up, is this an okay deal, a screamin' deal, or what?
To fans, it doesn't matter much, whether it's a million less-or-more. That's point A. The question isn't whether the Mariners saved a buck on Erik Bedard; this isn't national-lottery NFL roto where you spend each saved buck the next week.
In roto, in national-lottery roto, each buck is relevant in terms of the next move. But with this move, an extra $2m or not, that's not relevant in terms of the next move! The payroll is a floating target which is at the M's discretion. That point is critical.
Jack Nicklaus used to try to teach that length off the tee is not relevant as such. Length off the tee is relevant in one and one sense only: it's relevant in terms of making the next shot easier. If a shorter drive makes for an easier shot, then that's the one you want to hit.
Saving a buck on a player is relevant to M's fans in one and one sense only: it's relevant if it literally -- not in theory -- changes what the team does next.
Bedard making $4m vs $7m does not, so far as we fans can see, change much of anything material as to what this club's next decisions will be. The question of Bedard's contract, a bit more or less, isn't nearly as relevant as the Fangraphs paradigm conditions us to believe.
=== The Real Market ===
... Supposing that's what you want to know -- did the M's underpay Bedard -- the answer is that Bedard gave them about a 50%, 60% discount on what he's actually worth.
If the A's wanted to get down to an average $250k per Ben Sheets start, he'd need to make 50 starts.
If the Rangers wanted to get down to an average $250k per Rich Harden start, he'll have to make 44 starts.
Erik Bedard would have to start >25-30 games to get UP (u-p) to an average $250k per start.
Ben Sheets and Rich Harden are the closest comparisons for what a resource like Erik Bedard is worth --- in the year 2010 --- to a major league baseball franchise. They're not perfect comps. But they're the relevant comps.