Dr's R/X: Play Lousy Teams
Mismatch, Dept.


DaddyO sez,

 What the M's need is to finish out the month without losing more than one more series, and that one not by a sweep. That's what it's going to take to vault back into a solid state of affairs.


Great minds think alike, particularly the great minds of us 40+ senior citizens.  (That may be a redundancy, great minds and senior citizens.)  It isn't an accident that the AARP votes in a monolith.  

Dr. D was just musing about the last four series, DaddyO ... counting backwards from most recent:


Orcs 3-0 M's never trailed* 4 errors per A's game helped
Angels 1.5 - 1.5 50-50 bases gained, lost We're about as good as LA
Houston 0-4 3 walkoff losses + 1 Taijuan start Our 30% almost as good as Houston's 101%
stRangers 3-0 Texas 4 baserunners total Texas blows chunks


The M's had lost 6 of 7, all six of them on 13th-inning walkoffs as I recall.  Then the Orcs came in and we won a walkoff.  "This will be the one to get us going," said WFMB.  "You watch."  Sure enough, in the next game the A's committed four errors.  Such is the power of momentum.

(FM = future manager.)

The sports seasons are starting to pile up for Dr. D now.  In his 37th season of watching MLB, he is at the 37th level of conviction that --- > teams win or lose based mostly on the quality of opposition.  "Wow, our offense has real problems," a fan will say.  Right after three games against Scherzer, Price, and Fister.  "Looks like they've got it figured out now," the fan will beam.  Right after three games against Hector Noesi.

You could go "study" to see whether teams do better against 100-loss teams than they do against 100-win teams.  Mail in your report when you're done, Egbert.   But the Big Insight seen only at Seattle Sports Insider:  MLB teams run hot and cold.  The Houston Astros at a given moment could be playing like 117 wins.  They are on the brink of losing 25 in a row.  Last week, though, they were having their 15 minutes in the sun.


It's true that once in a while, you see a sports team that transcends its competition.  If you've got the 2012-15 Seattle Seahawks, this article need not apply.  If you're an NBA superstar with the refs in your pocket, this article also need not apply.  And if you're a pitcher who owns a personal section of the stadium seats, that's an asterisk too.

But if you're watchin' baseball, hey.  A lot of what we're seeing out there, the other guys have a lot to do with.


The M's have played almost exclusively in the division, where all the star pitchers live -- except when we play the Dodgers.  It's been an unending blur of Garrett Richardses, Matt Shoemakerses, Sonny Grays, and Satchel Paiges.  Granted, the Rangers don't have any such pitchers.  But then again, that's who we sweep when we go in.

Coming up on the M's schedule in the short-term:  

  • San Diego (88)
  • Boston (84)
  • Baltimore (97), and
  • Toronto (91)

In parentheses are the clubs' ERA+.  A number of (100) would mean you're middle of the pack.  A number of (91) would mean you're Hector Noesi.   A teamwide number of (84) would mean that Bill James better hang on to his World Series ring for dear life.  A teamwide number of anything below 100 means you ain't in the AL West anymore.

Coming up on the M's schedule in the long-term:  teams that are, on average, average.


Dr D




Shoemaker was 16-4 3.04 last season.  He's got 8.90 strikeouts per game and 2.08 walks this year.
That's exactly the kind of pitcher I used to trade FOR if he had a bad ERA after six starts.  I think Iwakuma's ERA is the same.  Trade him to me for Roberto Hernandez?  :- )


The scoring in this league is DIPS based and homers are minus 14 points or so...they kill you. He's given up ten of them in just 30-some innings.
This isn't uncommon for him either. Last year was a career year...on 400 plus AAA innings he gave up 53 homers...against minor leaguers...the guy runs a good k per bb because he refuses to throw a ball...but that is going to come with a ton of home runs.
For reference I also have Paxton on this roster...Paxton is scoring 16.8 points per start. Shoemaker is scoring 2.4 points per start. Paxton has wobbled bit I'm definitely not letting him get away. Just for fun...Happ...also with my seal of approval is scoring 26 points per start. Not to say that shoemaker will continue to be as bad as he's been...but the point was...he's been lousy so far. So it's not like is lousy him as am example of pitching that excuses the mariners' current struggles. :)
You're large point is valid other than the Houston games...i just have to much personal experience with shoemaker


Zunino's two airport shots came on --- > an 82 MPH slider out-and-over waist high arms extended and --- > an 80 MPH "cement mixer" curve ball at the top of the strike zone.
Not that there's anything wrong with hitting mistakes :- )

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