Q. Is Mike Wilson a player in the Adam Dunn "Three True Outcomes" template?
A. Two days ago, Moe got together a crowd and started playing those South African uvulas.
Mike Wilson's going nuts at Tacoma. Hey, what if you think of Wilson as a type of poor man's Adam Dunn, except you can put him in the field?
Great catch as to the (legit) bustout.
As to the Dunn-liness, when we speak of "Three True Outcomes" players like Branyan, Thome, Dunn et al, we are speaking of hitters who:
- Are scary powerful with, of course, very high HR/F rates (check)
- Guys who know the strike zone (UNcheck)
- Guys who take reams of pitches -- and have no problem taking called strike three (Sort of check)
- Guys who have lots of HR's, K's, AND walks, for exactly one reason: they're stalking one particular pitch (UNcheck)
Guys like Wilson aren't what we're talking about with TTO players; Mikey just doesn't know a strike from a tailback slanting off tackle. Mikey's a big powerful hacker.
Q. What about this Tacoma incarnation, though?
A. Wilson has, amazingly, walked 17 times and fanned only 20 in about 15-20% of the PCL season.
And he has, even more amazingly, shown a crystal-clear evolution:
- His whole life - terrible EYE
- AA West Tenn this year - quite-reasonable EYE
- Early Tacoma this year - very good EYE
- Last two weeks - sensational! EYE
His last ten games, make it 10 walks, only 7 strikeouts ... and he has homered in 3 of his last 4. The man is raining bloody death on the fringe ML pitchers of the Pacific Coast League.
He's got a Cranklin-esque OBP of .408 the whole year at Tacoma, with a >.600 SLG ... and the last ten games, make that .321/.513/.750.
Importantly, his EYE is excellent against RHP's, too. He has 8 walks vs 10 strikeouts against righties, who allow him less reaction time.
A. That all of a sudden, in 2010 Mike Wilson can tell a ball from a strike. Early in the flight of the ball.
Now, for the last two months, the man actually has been a Three True Outcomes player. Pro-rated over 155 games, his Tacoma line reads 94 walks, 110 strikeouts and 44 home runs. That's unpossible.
MLE? They've got his Tacoma producton down for an American League full-season 34 homers, a .482 SLG and a .65 EYE. His strike zone ratio would be about 80 walks, 140 strikeouts, 35 homers MLE, which would make him a moderate variant on the TTO platypus.
Q. Is it too late for him?
A. As you know, there are a fair number of Raul Ibanezes, Jeff Conines, Geronimo Berroas, Jack Custs, Brian Jordans and the like who figure it out late.
For sure, Mike Wilson is less talented than (say) Sammy Sosa. That is established by his career arc. Mikey was lousy at age 25 because he doesn't have the same gifts that Jose Lopez has.
But then, nobody's asking Mikey to hit 600 home runs. They're wondering if he could maybe hit 30+ for a couple years.