Price Enforcing on Bay

Baker, once again, with a fine feel for what was really going on in the Jason Bay sweepstakes.

In 5x5 roto with $260 budgets, Shandler disciples spend the first 50% of the draft "price enforcing."   They don't want to buy players early; they want to buy them late in the draft, when values are usually better.

But neither do they want Mikey Jay picking up a string of $26 Jason Bay's for $17.  So they use the 80% principle:  if Bay is worth $26 (and he is), Shandler disciples will consistently bid $21 for him.  Once you get to $22, fine, let the chips fall where they may.


The kicker is that sometimes your opponents stop bidding when you say $21.  That means you must roster Bay.  At 80%, that's fine.  In a tough league, you don't get the luxury of playing with your favorite ballplayers.  Agility is a Golden Principle.

In the real world of MLB, you can't make an offer and then pull it back.  If Bay had decided to go with a (say) 3/$40 offer, the Mariners had to have authorization to pay that contract. 

The Kansas City Royals don't get to price enforce.  Be aware that when teams are in on discussions, they have to be serious about acquiring the ballplayer. 

It's not realistic to claim that the Mariners were simply jerking Bay around, had no intentions of signing him, etc.  As Lucius Fox told Bruce Wayne, don't think of sports super-agents as idiots.


Baker says that the M's were short of Boston's 4/$60, in salary and/or years.  Our guess, earlier, was that the M's offer had to be 3/$40, assuming that they didn't want to blow their credibility on insults.

If the M's offered $12-13m per season, as we suspect they did, that's right at 80% of Bay's actual value.  Price Enforcing, baby. 


The M's three biggest rivals in 2010:  Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, in that order.  Two of those teams were in on the Bay auction.  Geoff Baker's paragraph is eerily roto-literate:

Despite rumors Bay was looking to go back to Boston, this item in today's Boston Herald shoots that down, saying the continued interest shown by the Mariners and Angels (a team feeling the heat from fans fearing its grip on the division is slipping) meant the Bay market was never going to collapse to the point where he'd settle for the reduced price the Bosox wanted to pay.

So, Zduriencik price-enforced Bay over to the National League.  He won't be playing for the Red Sox or Angels.  In terms of a head-to-head ALCS, subtracting Bay from your opponent is as good as rostering him yourself.

One more standing ovation for Zduriencik.  An expertly-applied Price Enforce on Bay, which realistically kept Bay from pulling a Bobby Abreu and joining ... the Angels or Red Sox.  Is there nothing this man can't do.

Roto league for you, Jack?  You could play under a pseudonym.  Or maybe Blengino handles your light work :- )


Dr D


Taro's picture

I agree with the concept but feel that the Mets are paying more around 115% for Bay on a yearly basis.
$12-13per is more in line with the current market (a little less than $4mil per W).

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