9 Trayvon Robinson, CF, 9.14.11

When the Mariners traded for Trayvon Robinson, SSI found one convincing player-comp in the major leagues for him, that being Curtis Granderson.  

SSI's coefficient of confidence, on this one, was very high.  The list of similarities, both saber and physical, is a mile long.


Watching the actual Curtis Granderson on Wednesday, and having watched Trayvon for 100+ at-bats, my confidence has gone UP.

Granderson lofted a high fly ball the other way, to left field, and for a second I thought I was watching Trayvon.  :- )  Same low CG, same stick-your-face-in-there, same long look at the ball, same compact 6-inch-punch to the ball, same followthrough ... same result.


On the day of the trade, some fretted that Trayvon's AAA strikeouts were unprecedented, as far as such players doing well in the majors.  But Trayvon has come up and flabbergasted everybody with his poise at home plate.

He has a fascinating plate discipline skill set.  His skill set being:

  • He pulls the trigger on strikes, 70% (to AL average of 65%).
  • He lets balls go by, 28% (to AL average of 30% swings on balls outside zone).
  • But!  He whiffs every time he swings at a ball .. 39% contact rate (to 68% in baseball).

In other words, you can't get Trayvon to swing at a ball much -- but when you can, it's a sure garbage swing.

Dr. D pos-i-trons that the kid needs a good year in AAA, learning to deal with breaking stuff spiked down out of the zone.

But he is holding his own, running a 95 wRC+ in center field, and learning quickly.  If you wanted to let him learn in the big leagues next year, you could.  He ain't gonna swing at balls and that right there keeps him in the game.


On Trade Day, Dr. D thought maybe a 25% draw at the deck, to get you a Curtis Granderson here.

100 AB's in, change that 25%.  To 40%.  This is a good-looking young baseball player.


Dr D




What the hey?  Somebody's doing my pictures for me?  How con-VEEEN-ient!
Or maybe the mighty Klat has social-media algorithms far beyond our imaginings...


Though the K rate and HR rate may diverge some ... 
But, would agree, if Trayvon settles in at something like Cruz' 2000 statline, .250/.325/.465 with 130-ish strikeouts and good BB's, then playing CF he's going to have a quality career.


I don't think he'll walk like that, but that 95 OPS+ is about what I'd like out of Trayvon.  95-105. Jose Cruz's career line would be good for a CF.  That .783 career OPS is what Adam Jones is currently sporting this season, good for 10th in the majors for any CF with more than 350 ABs, and gave him an OPS+ of 102 - solidly where I'd want Trayvon to be if he reaches his potential.
And BTW, since we have all these outfielders, if we decide not to add a significant bat and run with Carp at DH, can we look into adding Logan Morrison from the Marlins?  I love that kid and he's wearing out his welcome there with brutal honesty - and just filed a grievance against the Marlins that they might not appreciate.
I find it refreshing.  Plus he's a major talent just in its nascent awakening stages.  He'd fit in perfectly age-wise, and he's gonna be a good hitter for a long time, IMO.
Sans a real bat in FA, I'd be delighted to see Ackley/Carp/Smoak/Morrison hitting for us in the middle. It won't happen, but that's my dream for today - trading Trayvon (who makes me nervous) + something (maybe Seager, they don't have any 2B prospects to speak of IIRC) to the Marlins for Morrison, who doesn't.
That moves Wells to CF and fixes my problem with him as well. Ah, dreams...while we're at it why don't we ask about Hanley Ramirez?

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