I wonder what Blake's breaking pitches are going to look like one they are out of the hot, dry air of Az and in the cool, wet air of Seattle.
Q. What's different about FistVan's changeup, now that he's coming over the top?
A. That he HAS one.
Here is the movement chart from his last start of 2012. See the big clump of pitches within the red circle? That was his "slider."
So he threw two changeups -- the 82-84 MPH pitches that swerved armside (chart is from the catcher's point of view). And that was well advised.
Beavan's changeup last year had ... WHAT run value? Here, we'll make you click over to the hyperlink, so that the point sinks in properly. As you know, Shao Lin disciples must wait lotus position in the rain until permitted to receive instruction. One must grok a run value from the soul, grasshopper.
The wCH/C figure here means that Beavan, in 2012, added that many runs to his ERA for every hundred changeups thrown. In other words, Beavan's "changeup" was -- like Hector Noesi's breaking pitches -- simply not usable in a major league ballgame.
Q. So how was his changeup yesterday?
A. It was pretty decent!
It had a visible "parachute" effect. It swerved armside 7-12", not four or five inches, and it froze the (minor league) hitters.
Here is the F/X data on his changeup yesterday. Thanks, Brooks :- )
Q. Isn't F/X data questionable in March?
A. It can be. All of the assertions that SSI is making, with respect to St. Patrick's Day, is based off the visual check more than off the F/X data. The data looks sound for March 17th.
Q. So what were the outcomes of those 11 changeups?
A. Eleven changeups ... three nominally missed the strike zone. I noticed at least one for called strike three that fooled the ump worse than it did the batter. So 9-for-11 strikes.
Of the eight strikes, six were strikes not in play. They weren't swinging at the change, even when thrown high, right down the middle.
Therein lies another tale...
Q. If Beavan threw this changeup, how good would it be?
A. It's not a Fister or Erasmo change. They didn't swing out in front of it a single time. But then again there were extenuating circumstances.
It's a long story, but suffice it to say that such a changeup, if executed consistently, would be plenty good 'nuff to get batters "in between" on FistVan's arsenal. That was the issue last year, batters eliminating the breaking pitches and timing the fastball, and Beavan's changeup would theoretically fix that problem.
FIX it, y'know what I'm sayin'?