Darvish will be a Ranger, kiddies



As far as Boras waiting for Darvish to go back to Japan, cutting the M's legs out from under them...

1.  If the Rangers are already above 5 x $10M, that's too close to Darvish's ask, to let the deal fall apart.  How much more is Darvish going to get, by going back to Japan for a year?  Is he going to score a 6 x $20M contract if he waits a year?  Of course not, so the year back in Japan does absolutely nothing but give Darvish a chance to get hurt, and a chance to spend a nice long year touring Japanese baseball as a half-gaijin deserter.

We can be 95% confident that Darvish will sign.  This isn't an Oakland/Iwakuma situation by any stretch.  Hisashi Iwakuma felt that he was being offered 30 cents on the dollar, absolutely being insulted by the Oakland A's.  And in my view, he was.  If the Rangers offered Darvish 4 x $4M he'd go back to Japan too.  That's not the case.

Rangers are at, like, 5 x $11M and Darvish is at, like, 6 x $14M, and there's a week left.  What do you think happens the last day or two?  They go down to the wire and cut a deal, and Darvish's agent knows that he didn't leave any money on the table.


2.  If the Heyman / Morosi Twitter world's fantasy were actually going on, and Jan. 18th was the Big Day for Prince Fielder?  If that were actually the back-channel reality?  Then:  Boras would be talking to the Rangers now, not after Darvish signed or didn't.

You don't wait and see whether the real estate developer is going to commit to the mall, and if it falls through, then give him a phone call.  You press him while he's trying to get the mall deal to work.  And you talk numbers, keep him interested, get the deal ready to go in Contingency X (Darvish not signing) occurs. 

No, if that's what's going on, Boras is talking to them and asking, "Fine, you're focused on Darvish, but let me understand.  If Darvish doesn't sign.  What is your ballpark offer for Fielder then?"  

And the Rangers would say one of two things. "Yeah, if Darvish goes home, call us last.   If Seattle comes in with a firm 8 years, and we'll ask our owners whether they want to match."  OR they would say, "Get outta here.  We already told you; we're busy.  We're doing other things"

There is absolutely no smoke coming from the Texas fire, and if there were, Boras would make sure we saw it.


3.  Texas likes Mike Napoli and is trying to extend him.  For those who just joined us, Napoli in 2011 hit .320 / .414 / .631.  This would have been Manny Ramirez' 4th-best season.  Napoli did not have a typical Manny season last year; he had a season that for Manny would have been a career year.  

It's true in theory that Texas could sign both Fielder, and Napoli, to DH/1B long term.  But a commitment to Napoli does not jell with a Prince signing.  If Texas were going to sign Prince, you'd think that they would be trading Napoli.

No, they won't do a sign-and-trade.  That's the NBA, not MLB.  In baseball, the players' union does not appreciate its players being "used" by owners.


Take a sec and visualize.  If Justin Smoak had slugged .631 last year, and if Mike Carp had hit like Nelson Cruz, if you already had an awesome middle of the order, would you be wanting to give 8 / $200 to a 300-lb. Prince Fielder then?

If you'd let Felix Hernandez (C.J. Wilson), your team captain, go to the Angels over $75M, would you want to give 3 times that to Prince Fielder?  What is the point?


And as SSI keeps telling you, Nolan Ryan doesn't like fat people.  He doesn't want them around him, much less to invest in them long-term.


But it's all moot.  Yu Darvish is within deal distance in Texas.  They're just haggling.  

Might Texas sign both?  That's your only real question on the Fielder-to-Texas scenario.  It's possible, but I'm giving 10:1 against Texas signing Fielder at any reasonable price.


Dr D



try and keep Darvish's numbers down.  The Crasnick report today that the M's only have 3 or 4 million to spend and that the M's interest in Fielder are overblown has to be coming from M's.  Sending a message to Boras that we won't wait forever and you won't be able to use us if in fact you do have other suitors.


Sorta.  He never actually threw a pitch as a Mariner.
But apparently he'll be added to the bullpen candidate list.  b-ref #s here. 
Another low-risk, medium-reward add.


Pitchers who challenge out-and-over, with the high FB, can be a great thing, if they're good at it.
In 2011, Heilman's FB dropped from 93 average to 90, and hitters beat him about the head and shoulders with socks full of nickels.
As a *first* step, you'd need to see him touching 95 again.  Then we could talk about whether he's a good pitcher or a bad one.
Thanks Spec!


Morosi reports that the Darvish negotations are going well, and that the Rangers expect to sign him.  This confirms that they were not factors for Prince Fielder.
Remember to adjust for P.R.-speak.  If the Rangers publicly say, "Sure, things are going fine," they're no longer scared of Darvish pulling any funny business (and using the remark to the Rangers' disadvantage).
Also the Marlins are slobbering over Cuban sensation Yoenis Cespedes, further burying the Marlins as a factor in the Prince melodrama.
Boras is running out of bushes to hide behind.  There's a tumbleweed in Washington that is saying, "Well, maybe if he takes 70 cents on the dollar," and other than that it's just wind and cold.

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