Almonte, RF/CF - Major League Equivalencies
Come up to the lab, see what's on the slab


Q.  What's he been up to, the last few months?

A.  Almonte was not in BaseballHQ's offseason guide, at any level, and that's saying a lot.  As May turned into June, he was WOW'ing scouts who assured us that he could succeed in the majors right then -- not something they say about a lot of people, up to and including Taijuan Walker.

Since then, Almonte has hit 300-and-plenty ... actually he has hit Dr. D's favorite slash line, the Edgar 300/400/500 dance.


Q.  With Almonte's EYE, doubles profile, speed, etc., what is the MLE equivalent?

A.  If you can read this this sentence without pausing, give thanks for the efficiency of your brain... if you could read "MLE equivalent" the same way, take a bow.   :: floyd get on with it ::

Here are Almonte's MLE's, normalizing for Tacoma and for Safeco Field, and projected to 155 games:


155  600 88 31 15 69 63 .270 .340 .404 27 13


Q.  So, nothing to see here.  270/340/400 is no ball of fire.

A.  Well, here are the stats of the players who slug .400 for us currently.  R and RBI are pro-rated to 155 games:

Almonte MLE .270 .340 .404   27 90 70
Smoak 2013 .248 .344 .408 117 LOL 65 50
Saunders 2013 .233 .324 .385 104 18 80 60
Guti, career .257 .308 .392 91 15 70 60


Q.  Will Almonte actually hit that?

A.  James estimates 80-90 games in order to transition to a new league, learn the pitchers, etc.  See Mike Carp and Nick Franklin.  But, also see Kyle Seager and Brad Miller.

That transition in mind, generally speaking it's as likely that Almonte will be able hit .270/.340/.400 next year as it is that some established ML player (say, Franklin Gutierrez) will.  Almonte might not -- but then again, any given ML player might not, also.  See Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols.


Q.  Supposing that Almonte is a good defensive CF and hits .270/.340/.400 with 90 runs and 70 RBI?

A.  When you have a hole at CF or catcher, it can take four years to fill it.  They're talking about huge money for Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason.  If Almonte could post a 117 OPS+, score 90 runs, that's a player you win your next pennant with.

I don't know what his defense is.  See Gross, Gordon and Tater, Speck.

The Rainiers' last game, Almonte played CF, led off, had two hits and knocked in a run.


Q.  Could be that he's under-challenged by the PCL, so the MLE's sell him short.

A.  Or, could be that ML pitchers won't walk him, and the OBP will be less than .340.  Either could occur.


Q.  What's the upside to his offense?  Usually age 24 isn't the end of your growth.  At least certain Mariner players hope not.

A.  From what I've seen of his swing, and results ... see Article, Next ... there isn't any reason he couldn't hope to be John Kruk.  The top end of which template is, like, Tony Gwynn and stuff.

Much more likely, obviously, to settle in on an Al Martin type career, six or eight years of hitting .275 with a league-average OBP and SLG, and that's IF he pans out.  

But to say he's got no ceiling?  That's just our Mariner-fan shock conditioning talking.  For a normal ballclub, any decent draw at the prospect deck could turn up a John Kruk or something.  Look, sabermetrics aside:  if a guy can rake, he can rake.  Don't get too bogged down in SLG profiles and so forth.  Question is whether he can hit good.


Q.  Why is he up two days before September?

A.  I dunno, but if I were him, I'd read a lot into it.  And e-flowers can be sent to Guti via Twitter.



Q.  Do the Marlins need a center fielder who can lead off and score 80-90 runs?

A.  I haven't checked the National League in a while.  See Reference, Baseball-.


Dr D





Flowers for Guti. I love it.
Have wanted to see Almonte. Glad it's happening. Tenbrink next.

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