Big Games? Yer Gettin Em
M's playoff chances soar to 94.4%, more or less

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BALMER

Was very happy to see that the Red Sox crushed the Orioles 8-1 on Friday to shunt the O's back into the last Wild Card spot.  Would just as soon the Red Sox beat them 7 more times this fall.  Would also be fine with the Blue Jays beating them another 6x times.  Here's to the Yankee$ going about 7-2 against them in those games (six in the Bronx), and the Rays maybe getting their share of the seven Rays-O's games.  On TV, they pointed out that we are now chasing the AL East in the wild card - who are going to do serious damage to each other.  So far, so good.

The M's won't have to play .700 ball to catch the worst team of the Jays-Sox-O's trio.

Baltimore is +4 games over their Pythagorean expectation already; they should be 62-57 and .500'ish.  The M's actual playoff chances have spiked to 53%, so Amarillo Slim could put 10 seligs on the M's to play postseason baseball and have the better end of the deal.

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ANAHEIM

We talk about "hard RBI" a lot; the second game in LA, the one we lost, we had about six "soft" runs.  Real sloppy game, probably the sloppiest of the year, and we shouldn't have been close at the end, probably.

Again today we had a #9 starter on the mound, and scratched out a win with K-Pax and Taijuan in dry dock.  From a sabermetric angle, nobody is expecting Cody Martin to have Nate Karns' career; Martin's job is to spot-start when you're hurting and give you a chance.  Nobody's apologizing for a few ragged games against the Angels.  We'll take 'em and then we'll have prettier wins later.

From where Dr. D stands, Thursday's game is NOT a must win.  A 2-2 series in LA would be a winning road trip, and then we get to come back home.  If we lose Thursday, we'll be 10-3 into a stretch where we needed to go 15-8 or 16-7.  And with Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound, a loss isn't a completely forgone conclusion.

....

The M's play the Brewers and Yankees in a Safeco venue that has been putting wind in their sails, and then there's a 4-game set in Chicago, which is -40 runs to the worse and which has little to play for.

At that point we get the big three-gamer against Texas.  That was our dream scenario during the All-Star break, that we'd be watching big games.  Good on yer, boyz.

See you at the ballpark,

Dr D

Comments

1

I believe we'll need 89 or 90 wins to top the Orioles (who I see as the worst of the three AL East teams (and maybe even the Rangers, who are massively flawed and I do not understand how they keep winning)

Right now, we're 64-55, which means, we need to finish the season with a run of 26-17 or 25-18 to stand a chance.  That's entirely doable.

With one more game against the Angels, the schedule now looks like:

7 against the Rangers
6 against the Astros
3 against the Yankees
3 against the Blue Jays

(19 games against teams that are good / at least loosely in the hunt)

And then:

7 against the Angels
7 against the As
4 against the White Sox
3 against the Twins
3 against the Brewers

(24 games against bad teams)

Realistically, you would like to have the luxury of playing .500 ball against the good teams...say 9-10.  That would mean we'd need to go 17-7 or 16-8 against the bad teams.

As such, a win today behind Kuma, while not an absolutely must-win situation, is at least strongly STRONGLY preferred as it sets us up well for the drive to the finish.

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