Well, +5.7 if you're using baseball-reference.com. 5.0 if you're using Fangraphs. Meanwhile in 2016 the M's real-life shortstops had, on the green grass of Safeco Field, -1.2 WAR as a group:
So we are looking at +7 WAR upgrade at one position. That's a little bit like trading Seattle Sports Insider for Bill James Online.
DEREK JETER (NON-) LITE Dept.
Segura racked up 7.1 runs per 27 outs last season, as compared to Robinson Cano at 6.5 and Kyle Seager at 6.2. In fact in terms of RC/G, Robinson Cano has never had a better season than Jean Segura just had. (Well, he got 7.3 twice; I count that as "not better" in the broad sense. You take our point.)
With a .319 AVG, a .499 SLG and a 124 OPS+, we figure that Segura's 2016 would have ranked as approximately the #7 season on Derek Jeter's baseball card, out of 20 seasons.
From a "position scarcity" standpoint this is exactly what Dr. Detecto used to try for in rotisserie, to use the first three rounds to grab safe All-Stars at 2B, 3B, and SS (or C). You can then easily funge good hitters at OF and 1B as you play through the season.
The Mariners had MVP candidates at 2B and 3B and here they are slotting Nomar Garciaparra between them at SS to lead off. Wowza.
Perhaps 2016 was an outlier? And 2014-15 are the risk outcomes?
Perhaps. But he'll be drafted by roto champs as 90%-100% the player he was in 2016, but adjusting for park. He had very good reason for the tailspin in 2014-15, and Dipoto characterizes 2016 as a return to the "true talent" arc he was on before the deflection. I think you draft that way in 2017.
Of course Segura could "sink" to a .290 AVG season with a .420 SLG or something. So that's Jeter's age-28 season. Jeter had 5.0, 5.5, 6.0 RC/27 years. Guys are up and down. If Segura gives us Zack Cozart's HI season, 's all good. He hits for average in front of this lineup, he's going to score 100 runs.
There are never any guarantees, but if you're going to trade for impact offense, within reason, this is it.
My favorite stat on Segura last year was the 203 base hits that led the National League. It's not that shocking for a Mark Trumbo to go off on an "outlier" home run total, because HR/F is a luck stat. But to bang 200 singles, doubles, and homers around the park, well, not so many 200-hit men are flukes.
Riffle back through the leaderboards year-by-year. Last time somebody faked 200 hits with power?
Personally do not buy in 100%, but Servais and Dipoto were obviously frustrated with the lefty relievers thrown at them. With this trade, asked and answered. You've got two "marquee" right hand bats in the top half, and you've got your Valencia & Co. in the bottom of it.
Will see you again when the case is sol-ved. :: clouseau ::
BILL JAMES RULE
The perfect offense: four great hitters, two right and two left. One speed guy, one doubles guy, two sluggers. We ain't far off :- ) and Dr. D is stoked. The more so, since he was about as much a fan of Nate Karns' 4.05 FIP last year as he was of Taijuan Walker's 4.99 FIP. For me, the trade of Walker ensures a good, long look at Nate Karns and that's the cherry on top of a luscious three-scoop infield sundae.
YOUR TURN NOW
Wanted to provide a trade thread. Looking forward to the edumacation.
Just in time for Thanksgiving,