M's Playoff Odds Report: 34.3%
no matter where you go, there you are Dept.


Psychologists tell us that some personality traits are subject to change, others are harder to change, and others go firmly into the "cradle-to-grave" category.

In Dr. D's case, there is no shortage of the latter, the long-term quirks that he'll be saddled with in two years or two hundred.  He is resigned to permanent friendship with comfort food, to being the guy at the party with a lampshade on his head, and to a hopeful orientation towards Chris Taylor. In the Mariners' case, that means a fondness for long-distance relationships, particularly relationships with ca. 2001 banners in their rafters.

The Texas Rangers have a fondness for ... how do they put it in the South ... oh!  winning.  James gives "118 degrees" as the meteorological analogy for the way they're playing.  The Gentle Reader does not enjoy being broken down by the side of the road in 118 degrees, and the Mariners do not enjoy having three starting pitchers in line at the MRI machine while Texas rips off 23 wins against 6 losses.

But you have to see the humor in it.  Texas is all hat, few cattle.  They're on pace for a 104-58 record despite a run differential of +336 -294; the Mariners are on pace for an 84-78 record with a differential of +341 -281.  Abraham Lincoln's reaction to this kind of situation was to laugh so that no one would see him crying, and to conspicuously seat himself in public so that Southerners could freely approach him from behind. 


So, for the moment, we turn our attention to the Wild Card race.  Here are the standings.  We've got to finish 2nd in a 4-hydro oval track on Lake Washington.  Balmer, Royals, Jays, and us.  One of them will turn out to be really good; our job is to prove we can win more than the other two.

Run differentials and our almighty OPS+ ERA+ figures:


Hydro Run Diff / game OPS+ ERA+ Remark
Balmer +0.4 108 103
Champs =0.0 (?!) 94 111 No additions to these three hydros will be of any relevance whatsoever
Blue Jays +0.5 104 109
My Prrecioussss +0.8 112 107 Now add K-Pax and Edwin Diaz


Comfortingly, we can cancel the fractions on "threats" like Detroit, New York, and Houston.  They're all a good 6 games back of us.  Not as comfortingly, we do find a -2 to -3 game deficit against the other 3 hydros. 


It used to be that the Tigers featured a starting rotation pawn phalanx with Verlander, Max Scherzer, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Drew Smyly and his 10+ K's per game, Rick Porcello ... from behind this wall of pawns they would range their Miguel Cabrera queens, Victor Martinez rooks, Ian Kinsler knights, J.D. Ramirez bishops, and you could only cuddle pieces around your king and wait for the hammer blow to fall ...

Serious question.  How did this SP situation happen to them?  Do they still have that 97-year-old owner whose "Dying Declaration" was that he cared more about the Tigers than about most stuff?  Seriously, somebody brief me as to the general reason for this.

The Tigers do have one fragment of pawn center left, that being Justin Verlander, but he pitches Tuesday against forecasts for a lightning storm off the mountain.


All things considered, I'd just as soon face Pelfrey, Fulmer and To Be Announced than face Price, Scherzer and Sanchez.  But at times my judgment can be suspect in view of my carefully-concealed "M's Win" agenda, so let me know if I've got a blind spot here, wouldja?

Whale of a juicy hydro series starts in a few minutes.  Enjoy, fellow denizen.

:: daps :: ,

Dr D



Did I misunderstand you, Doc?

As of Tuesday morning June 21, Detroit is only 1 game back of us, and Houston/New York 1.5 games behind us. Not sure how we can cancel those threats.

It's tough to be confident when you were cruising towards the Rocky Mountains at 30,000 feet but suddenly lost oil pressure, two engines, and part of wing, having plummeted to 15,000 feet, your current trajectory indicating that you are unlikely to make it over the peaks.

If we fly by our instruments using the metrics of the entire trip we should easily clear the mountain. But if we fly by the instruments of the last 5 minutes we are in big trouble.


Since May 26, Mariners (36-34) have gone 8-16 and Rangers (46-25) have gone 19-5 and Astros (35-36) have gone 16-8. Marte, Martin and Felix all hit the DL in rapid succession. Marte and Martin came back but the club lost Miley and Walker, with word that Felix will be out until mid-July. Tough to see how they are going to level that trajectory out and start climbing again until late July and at that point, they will need to consider selling and not buying.

40 days until the trade deadline... 


You're welcome. We've all done stuff like that. I know I have. In the immortal words of Jock from Lady and The Tramp, "Aye, laddie...FREQUENTLY!"

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.


  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.