the old guys don't think they need the algebra



When it comes to Opening Day rosters, it's totally possible for a front office to --- lean left and then --- > zig hard right on cutdown day.  Happens all the time.  They get into the conference room and it gets down to brass tacks and they Just. Change. Their. Minds.

That, and on a much more unlikely front, it could also occur that Dr. D is wrong about his guesses analyses of the situation.  Happens with very extreme rarity, but you see the section header.



Last week, Dr. D slid the chances of a Nate Karns RP scenario from 20% to 40%.  This morning, he gets to gingerly slide it to 52%.  :: crowd throws caps in air like Army scored on Navy ::

Servais tipped his pitch when he commented that he'd like to see Paxton go five innings on Tuesday.  This reads to Dr. D like "We just wanna see Paxton get his shtick together.  Then we can go to war and get off to the start this administration needs."

Also, the M's have apparently pencilled in Cishek-Benoit-Zych --- Peralta!? -- and one more guy.  The only comp left for Nate Karns would be Mayckol Guaipe, who can pitch major league baseball, and Donn Roach, who cannot.  You've only got to rule out Coleman and Parker to put DiPoto on two pair in this 7-stud game.


DONN ROACH - used to fan 9 guys in the minors and used to pitch in DiPoto's "total organization."  However, he only fans 5 guys even in the minors any more, and you don't even want to check his major league results.  He throws an 88 (minus) fastball and a slow curve.  That, gentle reader, is not a pitcher you want to wave out of the bullpen when you could be waving for Nate Karns.

MAYCKOL GUAIPE - perfectly competent dude.  He's the main reason right now the SSI odds for Paxton + Karns say 52% as opposed to 82%.  "Putting DiPoto on a hand" we assume that he would PREFER Paxton SP5 and Karns RP if those two don't botch it.  But it's hair-fine as to whether, over the next 10 days, Paxton and Karns will actually go out and remind everybody why they're young stars.  

Karns SP5 and Guaipe RP is a very do-able fallback position.  Mayckol Guaipe is the one ML righty here who isn't a "reach."  So, take a moment and be glad about 'im.

COLEMAN AND PARKER - various permutations off Dr. D's guessing wit and wisdom remain possible.


FURBUSH GETS BACK, therefore MONTGOMERY vs NUNO - did not realize that Vidal Nuno has a AAA option left.  Still, of the two of them:  Nuno gives you strike one.  The tradeoff is whether you want to clench your eyes shut, white-knuckle, and do the "responsible" thing long term.  Responsible being to protect your talent pyramid for the April 1-30, 2016 time period, or whether you want a solid feeling when you make your LHRP2 pitching changes.

Think you could do the responsible, long-term thing (keep Montgomery on the 25-man) and then watch him blow two games in April?



Dr. D has a bit of "full disclosure" at his second site, D-O-V Mainframe.



Turns out to be a real nice move by DiPoto.  :: golfclap ::  

O'Malley is a little cooler than we all thought he'd be, but (thankfully) the org "layering" has indeed made him a nonissue.  Or so it says here.  And that's fine.  Your talent pyramid SHOULD reach the point at which Willie Bloomquist is out of a job.

Dr. D says that now, but at 11:58 pm on Cutdown Day, they could compulsively decide on the (little extra bit of) outfield leather.  Like the Snickers bar at the cash register.  I'd rather give King Leonydas his two-month chance and then crisply swap in Boog Powell.  Skip the dithering and hemming and hawing you get from Swiss Army Knives that can't really cut an overripe tomato.



Anything other than Dae-Ho Lee and SSI will throw a toddler tantrum.  The floor is, that he can hit; we have verified that through visual reconaissance, outside breaking pitches hammered into CF and so forth.  The ceiling is ... for all we know, he could be Jose Abreu.  This one is a no-brainer.

Bring it on,






Montero is dead in the water.  Hit the iceberg, taking on sea water, band playing on the deck dead.

But of the other possible variations, Sardinas-Lee is the least flexible available.  Well, unless Sardinas looks better in CF than I imagine. (Edit: and unless Lee can play a COF spot)

I'm betting on O'Malley and Lee right now.  And I'm betting on a trade, at some point, of one of our SS's.

Would add that it is hard to get to a point where you don't have some kind of a Bloomquist on your roster.  In the NL, with increased PH'ing for the thrower, a Bloomie-of some sort gives you the ability to do all kinds of managerial wizardry.  In the AL, where most teams have a designated Designated Hitter, then you have only 12 roster spots left to fill 8 glovey positions.  Include two C's, then you're down to 10 for 7.  It's hard NOT to have a guy like that on your roster.  And if he's a career .270 hitter with 7 different gloves, no ego, a terrific clubhouse presence, etc.......well, then.  Take it and run, realizing there aren't that many Zobrists laying about.  

Earl always had a sweet spot for that Sakata dude.

Understand what you mean.  But guys who swing a bigger bat AND bring a glove, well, they find their way into somebody's lineup.

Ideally you would have (were you in the AL) 4 2B-SS-3B guys, one who plays all three positions. Add 4 OF, 2 of whom can pick it in CF to some degree.  2 C's, of course.  Two 1B'Dh's guys.....then you add your 25th guy.  Somebody like Mark McLemore, right.  A reminder, that McLemore played 19 years, but we Seattle fans remember his TWO career years! Which were outliers, by the way.  Over his entire career he was .259-.349-.341 with an 82 OPS+.  How many times has somebody written that having a McLemore in Seattle again would be spiffy?  Well Willie B. had career numbers of .269-.316-.342, OPS+ 78.  There isn't much difference, really.  It is true that McLemore was a starter for much of his career. That is a difference, I should admit.  

Willie Bloomquist was a fine utility-type ballplayerr, at least all the way up through '14.  Ask every manager who he played for, I imagine.

The Dipoto/Servais question is whether Sardinas is a better WB than O'Malley.

Go team.   


Isn't Sardinas mostly a Bloomquist type with the caveat that he's got impact potential?  Think I heard Servais bragging on his ability to play 1B in a pinch, so that he can sub him in as a runner for Lind without burning two players.

And, this *would* bring them back to the (amusing) idea of using Aoki to back up CF.

But yeah.  With such a short bench, O'Malley's extra edge in flexibility has to weigh in there.  +1

GregfromSpokane's picture

Why you so down on Roach? Remember who will still be around when we are gone. Just kidding. He's been nails, 3 innings at a time. Had a game  when he whiffed like 5/6?


Sardinas as a PR for Lind is interesting.

I think we agree, btw, on these guys:  Both have value.  Sardinas has hit like Ernie Banks this spring.  Where has that been?  But then, he's still just just 22.  He's been traded two years running:  he was what Texas gave up to buy Gallardo's $14M salary, for example.  Milwaukee likely was giving most of that salary away.

We got him for a guy we didn't have a place for, who we got for a guy we had grown all too tired of.

For a "red hot" prospect, folks sure send Sardinas off easily.

O'Malley and Lee:  That's my story and I'm sticking to it. 

(Stupid typos now corrected...sheeesh)


Moe you said it so simply.

When I was writing up the SS's piece, I had a hard time coming up with a down side to Sardinas... and now that he is hitting, and several people are reporting that Sardinas is willing to play where ever and do what ever to make the team... I am even more confused.

I feel like we are mising something... but not sure what.



Sardinas basically gets traded for bupkis.

Alas, lots of guys get discounted by scouts.  Sardinas is proving (right now) a whole bunch of scouts wrong.  Well, the ones who allowed him to be traded for not very much.

*And And And is the name of an indie band in Portland. They style themselves as "The Hardest Working Band in Portland." The name is taken from a proposed band name in the great 1991 movie about a hard working Irish bar band, band and movie named The Commitments.  Netflix or rent the movie if you haven't seen it.  Why does any of this matter?  Well, 3 of the And And And members are former students of mine here at RHS.  Good kids all!


BTW:  Trailer for The Commitments   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_aO9pv0Y7I

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