Orioles Jell as a Perfect Illustration
'birds have three hungry SP slots to feed

MLB Daily Dish conveys Jon Heyman's report of this rumor.

Baltimore continues its search for starting pitching and is interested in Mariners starter Wade Miley, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

Since the end of June, the Orioles have been seeking starting pitching help and are known to be especially interested in a left-handed starting option. After falling to the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon, the Orioles are half a game behind Toronto in the American League East standings. 

It seems Seattle has made Miley available, most notably after General Manager Jerry Dipoto told Heyman the Mariners aren’t considering moving James Paxton or Taijuan Walker. 

Seattle could position itself to take advantage of a starting pitching market that doesn’t feature many lefties. Jon Niese, Matt Moore and Hector Santiago appear to be the lefties drawing the most interest, although the Rays and Angels might be reluctant to move their left-handed starters.


MLB Trade Rumors:

The Orioles have received virtually no production out of the third, fourth and fifth spots in their entirely right-handed rotation this season, so the pursuit of an arm to help support Chris TillmanKevin Gausman and the club’s slugging lineup and strong bullpen certainly makes sense.


Looks as though the "inevitable deal" logic is about to jell ;- ) and with Karns on the 15-day DL, SSI can heartily recommend Wade LeBlanc in the 5th slot.  Didn't think he was Moyer earlier, but neither do I think he's a meatball now.  Would be enthused about half-a-dozen starts behind Felix, Kuma, Paxton, and Taijuan until something better coalesced ... perhaps that something coalescing on August 1?

Vidal Nuno has 40 perfectly decent starts in the bigs also.  Or, there's Chris Archer West ... reel in a Joe Smith to replace, take your chances in the 8th, and re-rack your Michael Pineda buckshot?



If you think that Jay Bruce is an illusion, then you don't trade anybody for him, much less your 1A prospect.  Some people in the game think that, and some people don't - hence the "wildly moving trade market" on him.  Either prediction is reasonable.  IF DiPoto trades for Bruce, that automatically means that DiPoto is in the "Bruce .500 SLG" camp.

If you think that Jay Bruce is a 100-RBI man when healthy, well... Tyler O'Neill is cool but the definition of a Grade A prospect is that he has a 30% chance to be a star.

Jay Bruce has averaged 31 homers and 95 RBI per year, lifetime.  Bruce was a #12 overall pick, has made three All-Star teams, finished high in the ROY voting a fourth year, finished top-10 MVP twice and maybe will again this year.  He generates 6 runs per game in his good (healthy) years and 4 runs per game in those two bad (unhealthy?) years.  Jay Buhner with a few less walks.  

If we had a three time All-Star, and he was back in All-Star form as July 31 approached -- think Robinson Cano, loosely speaking -- we wouldn't deal him for an unheralded AA cleanup hitter.  Just saying.


If you think that Bruce is good, but that O'Neill *is* Jay Bruce at less salary ... your binomial calculator needs to be hauled in to dry dock, amigo.   Tank doesn't have a 100% chance to be an All-Star.  Neither does he have a 50% chance at it.  Almost nobody does; I've noticed that even the #2 picks in the draft are suspect.   Let's remember, good-naturedly, that we've suffered for years over Jesus Montero(s) and now that we be chicken about it, we could trade one for a Major League Thumper, we want the possibilities again ;- )

On the other hand, O'Neill is of course cheaper and he could of course be better than Bruce has been.  That's mesmerizing.  If you're very bullish on O'Neill, as Gordon is, that's your prerogative.  Remember Gillick had a list of 4 guys in Gillick's last year he wouldn't deal regardless; there was Nageotte and Blackley and Jose Lopez, but Felix was on that yellow sticky note.  Maybe you have O'Neill on yours.


If you are Dr. D, you see this potential deal as a classic Fair Trade in which Future ROI is cashed in for roughly equal Now ROI.  You're not winning or losing, mathematically; you're borrowing from tomorrow to pay today.  Whether you want to do that ... hm.  Have to see all the trades as a package, natch.

My two cents,




Joe Joe's picture

He doesn't have to be better than Bruce has been. We're not talking about a trade of ONeill for a 23 year old Jay Bruce. We're talking about a 30 year old player with a $13.5 million due then free agency. ONeill is unlikely to ever match Bruce's offensive production or his peak years (7-8 yrs ago), but I dont think this is a playoff team this year (too many question marks in the rotation and 5 games back in the loss column)... 

If you bring in Bruce it's for next season. I'm not paying Tank ONeill for a Jay Bruce rental when he's got only a few good years left and we only have him under contract for one of those. O'Neill has a good chance to be an average to above average COF for pennies and a ton of club control.  Bruce is not the type of player you trade your #1 prospect for, and ONeill is a legit prospect, he's not #1 simply by default since we have a bummy farm system.  If the Mariners are operating under the idea that the remainder of this seasona and next season is their window, then sure go for it.. I'm not optimistic about this roster breaking through this year or next (serious pitching upgrades would be required) and I personally am bullish on the future COFs in ONeill and Lewis. I think both these prospects have "it" and would solve a ton of athleticsim and outfield defense problems come 2-3 years from now. I guess I'm just not ready to deal our only healthy top prospect for what Bruce could bring us in 2017. If you are going to deal ONeill, wait til the offseason and see if you can dangle him in a package for a legit pitcher which is needed much moreso than another COF withs suspect D





You scooped the Miley trade chatter earlier today Doc.  Well done.

Baltimore has a young C/CH named Chance Sisco (great name)....I wouldn't mind us adding him!!

And I can't fault your analysis of Bruce.  I don't make the trade but I can see why we might.

What I like most about Bruce is that he hits lefties well enough to beft alone without a platoon.  Add that to his vR bat and he's a real upgrade to Smith.  

I won't heckle from the cheap seats if we make a swap for Bruce, even if we give up Tank. I am not altogether sold, as I've written, butI can see the arguments in favor.


Joe Joe's picture

I dont know what to make of his defense, so I suppose it's difficult to evaluate when Bruce had above average value. His offense was consistent for that 2010-2013 period before falling off the map in 2014-2015.. now he is performing well at the plate again. I don't know if he's in his prime at the moment, as the last two seasons which were prime years he stunk. If you told me he had more team control and was an average defensive COF then I'd be fine with a potential deal for him.. but there is limited team control here, offense isn't our real problem, and despite what you're saying Matt, you would have to rate his defense as questionable.. Not to mention that in 2014 and 2015 he couldn't hit



I wouldn't be dismissive of his three All-Star appearances and his lifetime 90-100 RBI rate.  WAR is great as one (huge) factor in the discussion, though not as a Giant Sun to blot out other factors.  Bruce has been a scoreboard changer.

In *terms* of WAR, he had 15 wins (150 runs above replacement) in four years before cratering - that assumed slightly negative defense.  Dock it by 0.5 per year if you are down on his glove.

This year, he's on pace for 4.5 WAR ... minus -3.0 WAR for glovework, which, no right fielder costs anybody thirty runs.

None of which is to say that Dr. D is a Go Get Jay acolyte.  Keep it comin' Joe Joe :- )

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