Paxton-Sale and Various M's Rumors
oh yeah baby


Hey, I get one clickbait title per 100 posts.  So sue me :- )  It would be nice to have a trade rumours thread in addition to the Shout Box, for those amigos like gnatto.  Also Dr. D prefers comments threads.  But 80%, 90% of youse guys prefer the Shout Box.  Democracy in action ... we do need to be able to migrate the specific Shout Box "conversations"/threads though, refresh them.


Regarding "5 top-level prospects," no team HAS that.  If by top-level prospects you mean, five guys in the MLB top 25.  And for the 1-2 teams that do have five guys in the MLB top 100 prospects, of COURSE they're not going to give them all up for Bryce Harper or anything else; that's just silly.

But what the Sox seem to mean is, one tremendous ML-ready player who blows them away, and then four guys they like - as their opening demand.  My first reaction is, sure, you can have 5 top-level prospects, as long as James Paxton counts as three or four of them.  LOL.


Mo' Dawg sez

The kicker would be the somethings, as I said. Let's call Paxton and Sale of equal throwing value (they may or may not be)....but Sale costs a ton more. To eat that cost, you need to get something else nice, all other things being equal. I wouldn't trade Paxton straight up for him and certainly not in a 5-1 deal with us being the 5. Sale's tantrum the other day was fairly ridiculous. Something is or was amiss. But if he is "sane" and I get the right parts along with Sale, would consider/sniff at it.....Parts would have to be really nice. Of course it looks like Chicago is trying to leverage everybody else's needs to maximize their payoff. At 5-1 the Dodgers can have him. - See more at:  


All you guys agree with that, and with respect I'll simply take the other side of it.  I imagined Sale as leading a clubhouse revolt, probably being encouraged by twelve guys to do it, and him being the one who could "get away" with it.  If that were true, then it's a character WITNESS for him that he's not throwing anybody under the bus.  In any case, my prediction was a week's suspension, as Randy Johnson or even Ken Griffey Jr. woulda gotten IF the CEO had hard feelings about it. 

Of course any connection between Sale and the M's is pulled out of our ears.  But DiPoto has been spectacular in terms of sudden trade announcements nobody saw coming, so what's the harm in noodling around about Sale?

MLBTradeRumors sez,


  • Chris Sale’s trade value hasn’t been hurt by his suspension for inappropriate conduct in this weekend’s bizarre jersey-cutting controversy. Any club wishing to acquire him would need to part with an MLB-ready, elite prospect, writes Passan, who lists Andrew Benintendi or Yoan Moncada of the Red Sox, Nomar Mazara of the Rangers, Alex Bregman of the Astros and Julio Urias of the Dodgers as hypothetical starting points — the White Sox would require another three to four valuable pieces beyond those names — if any of those teams want to make a legitimate run at Sale. I think the White Sox would be well within reason to start by asking for both Benintendi and Moncada from the Red Sox or Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo from the Rangers before moving onto the secondary pieces in each deal. Sale is owed $3.5MM through the end of the current season and can be controlled through 2019, his age-30 season, for a total of $41.5MM. The surplus value there is astonishing, and the dearth of pitching talent on the trade market/upcoming free agent market only adds to Sale’s allure.


I'm not exactly down on James Paxton.  :: big smile ::  And when Dr. D reaches into the pantheon of mythical deities for player comps, you know that D-O-V hyperbole has hit its zenith.

But as thrilling as he is, he represents a 70% chance (or something) to become an All-Star and a 40% chance to become something terrifying.  Chris Sale IS terrifying.  Y'feel me?  The SSI denizen, uniquely, agonizes over one asterisk:  James Paxton has a 25% chance to become something considerably MORE terrifying even than Sale, and it's so tough to give up the dream of that.  ... maybe DiPoto shouldn't.

Sale is club-controlled for a long time; Paxton is going to be a free agent too, just a few years after Sale.  You don't get to keep Warren Spahn for 20 years these days.  

So, yep, [Paxton and O'Neill and NOT EDWIN DIAZ OBVOUSLY and a good prospect], I'd be pretty happy to see it - if only because the next year or three matter more to us old guys than a theoretical dynasty in the 2020's.


Re:  Sale being high-maintenance for the GM ... the old Mariners hated, hated, hated dealing with Randy Johnson.  They considered him as unpleasant to deal with as any player of his era.  Dr. D hasn't seen any documentation of Sale being a truly unpleasant man.  Nothing against RJ, who was the original "Beast Mode" athlete in Seattle.  The Unit was the one player who was worth it.  You had the Defiler King of the Uruk-Hai in your dugout, and in that one specific case, kewl :- )


Also this from MLBTR:


Wade Miley has been quietly shopped by the Mariners in recent weeks, per Passan. While Seattle isn’t necessarily selling despite their trade of Mike Montgomery and their shopping of Miley, it appears that they’re open to dealing from the big league roster in the right scenario. The Montgomery trade brought an MLB-ready talent back to the Mariners in Dan Vogelbach, and Seattle probably has the pitching depth to move Miley without subtracting much in the way of big league value from the current iteration of the club.


Can I get an Amen from the congregation?  Am curious:  is there an individual SSI denizen who wouldn't like to see room cleared for the young pitchers?


Also this:

If you have heard stuff about potential M's trades I haven't, please enter the data below :- )  and all I've heard is the above about Miley.

Enjoy (baseball),

Dr D



Paxton currently tied for the highest hit rate against in baseball--40%

Regression is our friend.  

tjm's picture

I love Paxton but Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the AL and has been for a few years. You gotta do this if it's there, tho I agree I wouldn't sweeten the pot much.


Seeing erudite SSI denizens valuing James Paxton over Chris Sale.  :: dusts off hands ::  My work is done here.

;- ) just kidding.  Well aware that everybody is able to form their own opinion.  Delightful to see where those opinions are.


At some point in the near future, Sale's rubber band in his elbow is going to pop... or it will be his shoulder. It would be Mariner luck to trade Paxton, and then watch Sale go pop and pull a Hultzen.

That pitching motion scares the $$#!!^^ out of me, but at a minimal hit to future I could be OK. Paxton / Walker - NO. 

Paxton's motion is supposedly fixed, and he looks smooth.

Now if you want to talk some combination of 3 of the following: Tank, Diaz, Neidert, Yarbrough, Heredia, Peterson, Bishop, Gohara.... or something close to that... I'm all ears.  


My feeling is that Sale throws across his body, which gives him a lot of his deception.

However, I remember seeing how his hand would move from 5+ inches behind the elbow as it started forward, to where it was 7+ inches ahead when he released the ball... which just looked unnatural to me... but I have been wrong before.


But I value Paxton above Walker, so what do I know..

If Walker can build his value between now and the end of the season, I think I would be trying to trade him for a LF.

There was a discussion on another forum's message board (which is what I would really use on SSI, if it had one) and it came up about if DiPoto jumped into the build for now and for later mantra, having an OF going into 2017 of McCutcheon in LF, Leonys Martin in CF, Yasiel Puig in RF.

Buy on those guys while their value is down and the DWN scenario is a speedy OF with good defense with offense not any worse than we've had this season. And, not all that costly relative to free agent contracts or what other players who are performing up to their potential would cost. But the UP scenario with those two guys added to the lineup... Buy low now, because we need a RF and LF for the next couple years.

I love the idea of Tank O'Neill in LF. But until he's here hitting like Seager, I think we should continue adding talent.


Hey guys, if you want to try some "chat threads," just post a comment like BPJ's and finish "how about a chat board on this one?" and we'll put a stub up like an article.  With the comment as the "post."

We'll title them Chat Board On -- Dealing Taijuan and see how it goes.  Like a Byte Size.  No problemo.


Valuing Paxton above Walker?  You know as much or as little as I do ...  in the "voting watch" graph of their values in Dr. D's mind, Taijuan ticked into the lead during the April 2016 convention, but has been well below James at every other time.  Geoff Baker once did a video show emphasizing SSI's valuation of Paxton far above Taijuan ...

Right now it looks like things have JELLED.  And it would be injuries that changed it from here.

Well, there does remain Taijuan's best-case scenario but even that, starry-eyed as it might be, is no better than Paxton's best-case scenario.

... which seemed to have arrived last start ;- )


Never thought about that, since hadn't looked at it.  A quick glance at F/X leaves room for various interpretations IMHO; elite aces  sometimes morph in their approaches.  Given the response in the trade market among GM's etc, would suspect this was such a case.

But if we ever got any rumors on Sale it would be something to look at.



FYI, count me as one who prefers articles with comments over shouts. I understand, though, that this does NOT mean the majority feel the same way.

If I had a laptop or tablet, I would join the Shout Box-as-Game-Thread movement. I don't, so I...don't.


1.  Since I was the one who said I would certainly sniff at trading Paxton for Sale if we got the right sweetener I will add this:  On the whole, I would rather have Paxton, O'Neill AND the guy I can buy with Sale's $12 million clams.  There's the rub, Doc.  Give 'em all to me.  The M's being the M's, such a trade is us giving up two real guys and a guy (or two) we can't afford now.  That's why it has to be the other guy sweetening the pot.  

2.  Doc is right, of course...we're arguing camels through the eye of a needle.  As far as I know.....there is no connect the dots between the M's and the ChiSox.

Adenda: I really like Paxton., btw.  But for a quality starter and another pretty piece you would have to consider it.  DiPoto certainly would.  I don't think Chicago is interested in that kind of trade.  They hold the Sale card and a lot of teams want to play.


Not to mention all of the wasted money that should be freed up (as long as they can make the right trades).

Aoki -$5.5 mil

Benoit -$7.5 mil

Lind -$8 mil

Miley -$6.5 mil

Cishek -$4 mil

That's a lot of cheese to spread around next season. $31.5 mil

Just the $31 million saved from those bozo's would pay for McCutchen ($14mil), Puig ($8mil) and $9 million towards an Aroldis Chapman signing. 


You still have to regard Paxton pretty blinkin' high to say "Paxton and the bennies and whatever the AA guy does over ... the best pitcher in the AL signed at half price" right?  :- )   I love it.

Joe Joe's picture

I can't believe there are folks her actually unwilling to part with James Paxton (who has never been healthy and never pitched with any consistency) for Chris Sale, one of the Top 5 pitchers in the sport with a ton of team control. Totally mind boggling to me. I would trade Paxton, Diaz, and ONeill in a heartbeat for Sale.




Good to meet you Joe Joe!

Throwing Edwin Diaz in there will raise some eyebrows.  He looks like Dellin Betances making $500K.  But there's nothing unreasonable about your point of view.  

And we Paxton fans are enjoying your incredulity, since Chris Sale's colossal value underlines Paxton's in this discussion.

didycel's picture

Haven't heard this rumor, but while on the subject of the CHW selling.... As we all know, one great way to help the pitching is by fixing bad OF defense.  Aoki is killing me, and it was even worse when he was in CF.  Eaton lets Martin get some time off without killing the team, which would allow him to produce more too.  He also has good plate skills and can run the bases.



SonicBOOM! (unverified)'s picture

I'm with Doc on comments. And, I'm with bpj23 on the trade: Aoki, Benoit, Lind, Miley, Cishek for McCutcheon, Puig, Chapman. (Hey, the money matches... RIGHT?!)


If you like to encourage them, DaddyO, Boom, amigos ... best way is to comment.  1 line is as good as 20.  Gracias


I said to trade those guys. Not that they would be who you trade for Puig/McCutchen.  Just using them to bring talent back into the system which would take a hard hit trading for two talented outfielders.

The Other Billy Zoom's picture

While Mr. Sale was regarded with respect for his stance on the kid in the clubhouse issue involving LaRoche, I have not heard a word about how his peers liked the uniform cut-up caper.

Nor have I read anything about Sale doing a Dennis the Menace because management jumped into the "5 top guys for him" stance.

Perhaps, none of this is relevant in a new motel in another city.

Somehow, Robin Hood's antics ranged from tolerable to smile provoking, but, as I recall, they wore off in the clubhouse when he gopherballed like Groundhog day.

So, is Sale the kid in high school chemistry class that just had to do what he was told not to do just to see what would happen?

Or is he Gene Wilder following his own script?

I'm 180 on Paxton since my spring training position when I traded him.

Unless Sale is fire sale priced, no way ... but Walker has worn out my hopes for ever being consistent, and if you pack him with O'Neill or Vogelsbach I am in.

Only Miley thing I've seen is to Miami, and he would just be an outside option to them if they can't get Archer or someone else.



Sorry, not familiar with the reference?  Since you're not talking about HR rate.

As always a treat Zoom and your comments read like a scout's.  Of course we've been pranked a few times on that front, but that's how much I enjoy reading you.

When you say "unless Sale is fire saled no way" you're referring to the baggage we assume, or perhaps also to SABRMatt's judgment that he's declining?


sounded like "greatly reduced in price" to me.  In response to his antics, I'd guess.  Doesn't sound like the price will be sane regardless. 


Holding a fire sale is clear enough ... the phrase "gopherballed into a Groundhog day," that's where I didn't quite get the verb.  :- )


You can't include Diaz in that because he's got to headline a +++ for Miller.  Zunino ++ for Derek Noris sounds good too.  So we can focus just on the headliners going out to see if they single-handedly out-produce the return.   We could watch it all from day 1 even.   No waiting.  NO THANKS!

The "Need" for Sale does not exist in my sight here.   We're talking about buying high here.  I get that there may be a lack of "playoff starters" here but I see possibilities.  Let's start with Paxton, since he's already in the discussion.  You think he wilts in the playoffs?   I hope we get to find out this year but I wouldn't bet that he falls.  Felix may not be ready now and if things go south there's trouble but any doubt I had of him wilting under pressure left in the final innings of the perfecto.  THAT'S Felix under pressure.   Good luck with that.  Striking guys out like Diaz just came in...We could use another, Walker is a stretch to rely on currently, Kuma hasn't been as dominant consistently this year, etc..  But there are plenty of possibilities.

I'm more worried about the bullpen and OF defense.  Between DL and AAA there are options to possibly improve that too.  I don't see a true hole if I include Heredia, O'neill, Furbush, Zych and the rest.   Acquisitions can improve on the weakest link but improvements are becoming available from within already.  I'm not opposed to improving via trade but trading 2 guys that can help now for 1 doesn't make sense.   We're not talking Aoki and Lind but guys who will likely start in the league for 10+ years before FA combined.   If it was guys a bit further out I'd be less reluctant.   Drew and DJ aren't going to start for the mariners next week, ya know? 

The Other Billy Zoom's picture

The groundhog day thing was about recurrence ... not to Sales HR stats.

My concern is that as Sabreman pointed out, the goods might be more worn than we suspect and the Chisox know it and are all in as if it is a Texas Hold 'Em game ... it could be they figure he will never be as effective as he has been ... but they don't want to put up with his "behavior", not unlike How Hard and Chuckles dealing with Randy.

And the movie ... the same thing happening over and over again in reference to Seattle's fabulous trading history, which is akin to getting shagged by a rodent.

As to "fire sale", if you've ever been around clothes that has been in a fire, a certain odor never goes away, but you don't know it until you smell it, and, in this on-line business, you won't know until after it has become yours.

The Chicago's know this, so, even if they put him on special after the initial offer brings no buyers, it becomes apparent they know this.

Makes sense to move your money to the craps table and throw down Tie One On and Tank on the table.




Yeah, it's so hard to make a decision on that.  You could get the guy and see a Lincecum or Halladay-type bug on the windshield ... or you could avoid him over skittish concerns like the M's did Randy Johnson, and just turn out to have been chicken ...

One thing - Sale isn't paid much over the next few years.  And Paxton isn't a guarantee against injury.  But yeah.

Andre Snide's picture

Do you blame a guy for trying to maximize his earnings in a sport with no guarantees, that could cripple you for life tomorrow? Would you give up money?

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