The M's 5-8 SP slots
dicey. Let's hope for box cars, then


At least two of these guys will get ten starts in 2018.  At least two.



Looking at him from 3,000 miles away, HQ sees the sky covered with fly balls and 2.0 HR rate (!!) although "there are #5 SP skills here."  Their general sentiment is a terse one:  "Pass."



Miranda has explosive -- well, at least "turbulent" -- stuff (above-average lefty FB, nice arm action on a fadeaway 81 MPH change they call a "slider") and he is early in his career.  It is a general baseball truism that you have to give some players time to build, to learn.

Whatever that 84 MPH pitch of his is, it's barely even seed money, and Dr. D will cheerfully admit that 2018 may be a developmental year.

The M's talk a lot about wanting that 2-3 inning Scot Shields / Chris Devenski type pitcher out of the bullpen; it seems to us that if Miranda (after 40 starts' experience) could be ready to crush that role if he went to his 2 best pitches for one trip through the lineup.



MLB results were catastrophic but we (HQ) are sticking with the promise of his MiLB results.  If he can cut HR, he's got a path to quality ML pitching.



He had a rising, cutting fastball and he "flashed" a plus change.  (Flash is a scout cliche but in this case if the shoe fits.  When Moore threw it the way he wanted, he got garbage swings, but overall the pitch misleadingly showed -1.22 on the runs count.)

Moore didn't throw the slider or change curve to ML standards, but as the season went on, he showed so spicy potential to locate the slider teacup-style to break just off the black - the way Hisashi Iwakuma does.

In fact when Hisashi Iwakuma himself got here, Jack Zduriencik sat behind home plate shaking his head grimly, with an obvious "no chance" demeanor, and Dr. D firmly insists that Moore is not far away from a game that MUCHLY resembles Iwakuma's, only with the plus change replacing the shuuto.  Moore will have to be fine to get there, but we think he's got that (and Iwakuma's makeup) in him.



They acknowledge his plus changeup as a plus pitch, with its 14% SwStr rate last year.  But again from 3,000 miles away they see lots and lots of yucky in his other component skills and conclude, "no roster."

Bat571 has me intrigued with the INJURY-arc paradigm.  Marco can throw his change a lot better than he did in 2017 and he can finesse his FB location better as well.  When he does he's up into Mark Beuhrle territory.  When a man has a 7+ whiff rate, a 2+ walk rate, and is held back by a 1.8 homer rate, you know he is only some fine-tuning away.

Very simple solution too:  make him show that at AAA, or in the bullpen, that 78-80 MPH change he used to have.  When he gets there, start him.  What's the problem here?



They, and Jerry Dipoto, repent of their weird idea of converting Povse into a Chris Devenski type.  That seemed like a non-starter to us from the start. Dipoto gamely takes the fall for this and warns us baseball fans not to blame Povse.  Read the article; many edifying quotes within.



Have always loved Povse's ability to deliver King Felix TM pitch sequences, meaning a 7-pitch AB with 1 ball and nothing that F/X's inside the strike zone.  He's got downhill bite on a fully 95 fastball, good arm action on an 88 change, and "flashes" :- ) bite on a curve ball.

To date, he's been relying too much on "pitch to contact" (over 70% fastballs) and therefore has a tiny 5% SwStr rate.  But give him a chance to play the command off the secondary stuff and, with that 6' 8" downhill fastball, it's not hard to see a draw at the Jake Westbrook / Justin Masterson deck here.


Dr D 


Bahm1's picture

Believe he is out of options.

Hope one of these guy's can break through in a good way...or two or three. I won't judge until the season starts, but I'll be disappointed if this is really it for the rotation.


That is, last week...I was watching videos and looking through pitch velocity/ movement and values of M's potential starters.  Miranda and Gonzo seemed to be in need of a useful fastball (89-90 cutter, maybe?).  I said that Moore needs to work on pitches other than the 4SFB, as well.  I lost steam before getting to Povse or further. 

But looking at Ramirez and Leake, I came away surprised that nobody seems as happy with who they seem to be right now.  Am I just delusional?  Should I just wait at least 6 months and ask again? 


Is one of several guys they were hoping to get a Devenski type from.  Art Warren's big jump in velocity, in my mind answered the lack of need to continue trying Povse there.  Art Warren already had a good slider and curve as a finesse starter in 2016, jumping to the high 90's in his move to the bullpen (reportedly touching 99) makes him exactly what you were looking for.  I just want to say Art Warren again.  I might go read other sites to find "no arms in the upper minors" comments just to say "Art Warren"again. 


From Art Warren.  He was the pitcher on the mound as the AFL championship was clinched.  Didn't give up a run in the AFL.  3 wins, 3 saves, 5 hits,  4 BB, 12 K in 11.1.  Apparently to close out the championship he used only 94-96.  Only a year previous he wasn't even touching 94.  There's video of his final pitch, Filia and even Alex Jackson in the link (standouts) :

Please forgive the bad math..."Eric Filia, RF, Peoria (Mariners). His lone plus tool is his hitting ability, and it showed when he led the AFL in batting (.408), on-base percentage (.483) and OPS (1.088) during the regular season."  Yeah, simple subtraction there gets you to .605 SLG which actually shows that hitting is not so lone in his abilities.  I guess we should ignore the readily available defensive videos of him in the AFL as well.  Like the ones embedded in the article?  Eh, it can't be easy to fill all that space, I'll cut Callis a break...It is not a world where I'm always right either.  Chipper Jones at 29?  There's that .605 SLG; .330/.427/.605... kind of what Filia just did to the AFL.  Who hits 4 triples in the AFL anyway? 12 BB and 7 K.  1 HR in case that SLG misled you.  0 steals in 3 tries, i assume means he got caught napping 3 times.

So, did a bunch of you resolve to stop talking baseball this year?  


This is the most boring offseason in Mariner franchise history. Apart from one week of mad excitement over Ohtani, the Mariners have done jack and squat to improve their club.


You can PLAN for success, OR... you can WISH for it. There's always reason for optimism. At the end of the day, will the plans prove sufficient?


...was it reasonable to expect that the plans would be sufficient? That's the question...luck's fun, but it doesn't define the quality of leadership.

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