Track Records in the Bullpen? OK, Here y'Go Amig-O
coulda represented this bluff a little better, mayhaps


The TNT has quite the cornucopia of baseball info-tainment up today.  Well, it is definitely a baseball cornucopia when you compare it to the amount of baseball information gleaned from a Chris Matthews interview of Carly Fiorina.  

This particular TNT horn of plenty has Scott Servais' disavowal of Cody Martin's impending March line of 10 0 0 0 0 1 10.  And that would otherwise be pure awesomeness.  The Mariners should base their bullpen decisions on track records rather than 8 March innings pitched - if any of their relievers had decent track records, that is.

Cishek-Benoit-Furbush being our "givens" here, the M's need three righties and one lefty.  Among the riffraff, let's CHECK those track records.  BaseballHQ is willing to consolidate those 3- and 1-year past performances with coolly objective projections for the 2016 season.  The righties:


Base Performance Index RP K BB proj xERA ... or life xFIP
178 Scribner, Evan 9.2 1.2 3.15
79 De Fratus, Justin 7.5 3.2 4.20
DNP, HQ's decision Zych, Tony 2.70
DNP Cook, Ryan 3.80 but declining
DNP Peralta, Joel 3.98 declining
DNP Wieland, Joe 4.60
DNP Aro, Jonathan No track record whatsoever

When HQ refuses to put Joel Peralta in its roto guide, that's because it has inspected his "track record" and wandered off disinterested for 2016.  True, their gaffe on Zych calls into question whether they're completely infallible.

Scribner and De Fratus CANNOT be in Tacoma,* so the other guys can't be happy about Servais' early decision that a lot of "good pitchers will be in Tacoma."  Tomorrow's news today, Scott.

Anyway.  If we're emphasizing track records, then Evan Scribner and Tony Zych have two of the jobs and Ryan Cook will try to displace Justin De Fratus for the last spot.  Jonathan Aro starts in Tacoma and forms a sound stop-loss if the other guys skateboard, heads turned back, into a handrail and fold over at the waist.  See how easy armchair quarterbacking can be?

For comparison's sake, Joaquin Benoit is an actual quality major league relief pitcher and his projection is for a 3.59 xERA.

The lefties, vying for one (1) spot:


BPX Pitcher K BB xERA ...or life xFIP
105 Nuno, Vidal 7.1 2.1 4.00
heh! Hultzen, Danny it was real good in college
REAL GOOD Paxton/Karns SP6
66 Montgomery, Mike (no AAA options) 6.4 3.4 4.14
DNP, HQ's dec. Rollins, Dave 4.19


So, what's to wonder about here?  We put DiPoto "on a hand" and it's Scribner-Zych-De Fratus-Nuno going into Arizona.  If you're the Rangers sitting on two pair, you can bet it way long, but you won't drive DiPoto out of the pot anyhow.


Dr D


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