We Will Buy and Sell, and Get Gain
Beane Count, dept.


Thr 9:58pm: Browns8625  Anyone afraid we may not be buying this year? 

Honestly think there are a few guys, like Billy Beane, who can buy and sell at the same time.  Churn their rosters while providing for the future while trying to win now; the window for this attempt is in the delta between the way THEY evaluate a given player and the way some other team does.  Billy Beane is never afraid to deal one of his young aces for minor league talent one day, and then give up a Baseball America top-100 player for a 30-year-old the next day.

It's exponentially more complex to attempt this - much less to do it while balancing org strengths and weaknesses.  Hey, if it were checkers rather than chess, bloggers could run teams ....  

Vogelbach is a "responsible" move for the future, since our 1B's right now are good but transient.  We've got more Mike Montgomerys than we Best Hitters in the PCL.  That said, would not surprise in the least if Lind goes out for a left fielder or a second Edwin Diaz or something.

Jerry DiPoto's trades have only one thing in common.  They are all weird.



In the Shout Box, semi-regulars are gingerly poking about the question, Could Dan Vogelbach become a star.


Mike Montgomery is a fine young cost-controlled pitcher.  Five years cost-controlled.  Earliest free agent 2022.

Jerry DiPoto thought real hard about it in March and plumped for the no-options Montgomery over many, many, MANY options.  And despite the fact that using Montgomery in the bullpen -- muchly against Montgomery's wishes and experience -- was a reach and a half (REACH*1.5).  That move would have been a reach even if DiPoto's bullpen weren't itself a (REACH*2).

So JeDi's opinion of Montgomery was already quite high in April.  Then Montgomery went out in 2016 and proved himself better than ANYbody, including DiPoto we're sure, could have hoped.   Here is Chris Bosio gloating over the Cubs' "pounce" on him.  Like SABRMatt said, Drew Pomeranz was going to be in the vicinity for trade value.

So don't worry about being called a "homer" for projecting Dan Vogelbach to bat 110, 115 OPS+ next year or this.  That's what Jerry DiPoto is representing Vogue to do at minimum.  If Vogelbach does NOT hit the league average DH and quickly, this trade was feebleminded.  Kendrys Morales and Khris Davis is the MID here.

You can call yourself a homer if you take Vogue's age-23 AAA stats to be his age-27 MLB performance.  ;- )






I haven't seen mention of the DiPoto Theorum:  Almost all RP's are spaghetti.

So I'm betting that DiPoto sees/saw Monty as a pretty high quality spaghetti, but noodles all the same.

I think you and I see him as a bit better than that....and not as an RP, in fact.

But DiPoto is betting he can find a lefty RP each and every year......pretty much at will.  He can't often  find a Vogelbach who can be had on the cheap.

That's his view on this one.  

And I am not kicking about the move.  Billy Beane would have done it. Vogelbach has a pretty high ceiling.  Kruk might be it.

I'm in for having a Krukie around here.

At age 24/24 Seth Smith bonked on AAA pitchers to a .321-.400-.527 tune.  That was a notch above his AA performance.

Vogelbach's .325-.431-.565 smells like that....or better.

See my Kruk comments in one of the posts.

Smith is a 114 OPS guy for his career.  Kruk was at 134.

There's your expected range for Vogelbach.  He isn't a rusty fence vs. LHP, btw.  

I like the Kruk comparison a whole bunch.  But I will compromise and be satisfied with an 125 OPS.  I won't get greedy.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.


  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.