6 Seattle Mariners Rumors grokked by the Best M's Blog (Dec. 5, 2014)
M's happy about where they stand


But of course, dear child.  We warned you about the ListVerse and SEO shtick, and you backed away and did exactly as Dr. D commanded.  Then Igor delivered the electro punishment with an evil leer.  Such is life in Young Frankenstein's la-BOR-a-tor-y.


1  The M's are talking to the Rockies about OF's.  Fortunately, one of baseball's best writers is a Mariner fan who lives in Colorado.  He says,


Gordon GrossI'm curious about who we're looking to get from the Rockies for the OF, though. Only Cargo is worth a big trade like Walker, and that depends on how you feel about Cargo's effort and ability outside of Coors - and whether he can stay healthy. I happen to think Cargo is a good player, not a great one - more Detroit's Carlos Guillen than an MVP candidate. But if a good hitter is all we need to make it work... we could do way worse. 

We'd still need another arm in that case, though - maybe Chris Young does come back at that point after all, to do a relay with Elias as we get into August and September. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/run-offense#sthash.n8FThy9g.dpuf


So we infer that Carlos Gonzalez could be had in a Taijuan deal, or that it's possible enough that we can include it with the Kemp and Upton rumors.  

How good is CarGo?  I'm not going to try to compete with G-Money on Rockies players; that would be like Bill James as a sabe trying to tell us about Dustin Ackley.  We'll just note that he's 28-29 now and his PX (underlying power) is going up with a bullet.


At a glance I might go ... Kemp >>> CarGo > Upton.  That's even if CarGo had 1 year on his deal rather than the 3 he actually does.  But Gonzalez hits lefty.


2 Matt Kemp will cost three big prospects.  Or just Yasmani Grandal.

Jay-Z just said that negotiations are ongoing but discouraging.  That could be for public consumption, or not.

The Orioles are "nowhere" in the Kemp talks, says CBS Sports.  This dovetails with our local sense that they are demanding Taijuan-plus, with local LA reporter Terry McDermott, and with Mojician's prediction that you won't get anything done with Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' GM.


But in San Diego, they're saying that Yasmani Grandal and sweeteners would get it done and obviously that's with LA picking up a good part of Kemp's salary.  A total contradiction.  That's kind of like Dustin Ackley and ? for Kemp and $40 mill.

:: he stops short :: Maybe that explains Russell Martin M's rumors?  You flip Zunino for Kemp!


This Dec. 5th article says that the Mariners "are perhaps further along than the Orioles" and that the Dodgers want a starting pitcher in return.  Now that's the kind of deal you can relinquish Walker, LA Dodger.  Kemp has 5 years left on his deal.

Obviously J.A. Happ would make 29 kinds of sense then.  It would be just like adding Russell Martin to flip Zunino - specifically to LA.


BOTTOM LINE:  Because of the reports out of San Diego, Dr. D hasn't written Kemp off.  Winter meetings time!  Yeah baby!


3 The Mariners would purchase Alex Rios if he would discount the price tag.  Click this link to read about it.

Dr. D presumes this would be to use Rios as a #4 outfielder de luxe.  FanGraphs gives you this summary:

  • Has averaged 608 PA and 2.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.2 WAR in 521 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.0 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-34 season.
  • Made $12.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in April of 2008.


Dr. D gives you this summary:  he's an aging, average/mediocre bat with lousy defense.  He better not be the starting RF, that's for sure.  

But could he be a championship-level #10 hitter, like Mark McLemore or David Dellucci?   He's got some speed, so is a right hand #2 hitter for the M's.  But his core skill -- scoring runs -- started rolling off the table at age 33.  He scored 54 runs in a full season in Texas.

Right hand #4 outfielder who keeps Brad Miller, James Jones, D.J. Peterson, etc off the 2015 ballclub?  For his career, Rios has no platoon split at all, but in 2014 he mashed lefties and feeb'ed out against righties.  That's what happens as your reflexes go.

He's a #4 for sure, a platoon guy, and even there I think you can easily do better.  I'd rather see D.J. Peterson or Stefen Romero platooning in that role.  

BOTTOM LINE:  The key is this: in 2015, Jack's in no mood to speculate against LHP's.  That feeling, that emotion, would cost him in an Alex Rios decision.


4 Hisashi Iwakuma is going nowhere.  How does Dr. D feel about this?  In related news, his children are going nowhere.  

Baseball is for fun.  Whether the decision is objectively right or wrong -- 75% chance it's right, it says here -- in the grand scheme of life it is 1,001% right.

Can't get the image out of my mind, a postgame champagne shower and the smile on WBC-san's face.  Hold it.  WBC-san?  Does Iwakuma wear MLB unie's in international games now?  :- )


5  The M's have a real reluctance to part with major talent for one year of Justin Upton.  They have shown their teeth here.  They turned down David Price at the cost of the playoffs.

There was only one impact bat left when they spent their money.  If you got $35 of roto mad money in your pocket out of $260, and it's the last round, and the only thing left is a $15 player who costs $20, then ...

Not that Cruz is necessarily even overpaid.  But if he were, then in the $260 roto paradigm he ain't.  It's free money.

We got more shtick on this at our second blog.


6  Lloyd McClendon gushes over Nelson Cruz.  This is an ex-rumor, happily enough.  On the Mojician MSS meter, Cruz is "tremendous" - he hits great pitching, not lousy pitching.  He's a winner who gets hard RBI.

I'm feeling melancholy, not angry, that this kind of remark is still snickered at with sabes -- who think you can simply promote a part-time player, expose him to the harsh sunlight of Jared Weaver booked up, and get the same WAR for a pittance.

It's a weird thing.  Booked-up Field Gullers take it as first principles that Pete Carroll's press conferences supercede their own blogs.  We don't have to do that, but sabes take McClendon's reports as having zero value.  Zero.

Without sending Igor in to discourage such behavior, we're in a cheery mood and will just state it calmly.  My own position is this:  Hard RBI are very real, all GM's agree, and based on McClendon's scouting report I like Cruz even more than I did before Mac's statements.


Dr D


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