Flat Tire
Q: What is the value of a limping Dee Gordon?

A:  Not much, really.

OK, pure speculation here, since hard-fast injury data is still not in, but Gordon didn't look good coming off the field:  You have to admit, even if it wasn't a "they shoot horses, don't they? type of injury, it didn't look likely that Gordon was going to be his normal race car self today. Or tomorrow.  So let's suppose he's dragging an ankle around for a few days. 

True Stuff:

Dee Gordon doesn't walk: Didn't I just read that he had the lowest walk percentage of any leadoff hitter in decades?  His BB last night was his 7th of the season.  He's come to the plate 434 times.  You do the math.  Wasn't the whole point of Money Ball to illustrate the value of the walk?  I'm sure it was.  Somebody hand Gordon a copy of that book.

Dee Gordon doesn't hurt the ball:  After showing an approach in ST that indicated he was trying to find more pop, he's now fallen back on his standard Punch (not much) and Judy happy slappy act.  He is ISO'ing .061!  Really.  Brendan "The Hammer" Ryan ISO'ed .078, .084 and .072 in three Mariner seasons.  Gordon at .656 OPS and 84 OPS+ is really an impediment in the lineup, at least for a 2B.  Like it or not.  True stuff.   He leads the league with 26 steals (and 8 CS), but the 39 steals he's on track for don't really light that many fires.    If he's hobbled, then even this value goes away.  

Dee Gordon can pick it at 2B:  He won a 2B GG in '15 with a RF/9 of 5.15 and a Fld% .992.  In '18 his RF is 5.05 and his Fld% is .979.   But here's the kicker, according to B-R the AL avg. Rf/9 in '15 was 4.78.  Gordon bested that by .37.  This season the league average. Rf/9 is 4.17!  Gordon is beating that by .88.   Weirdly, it looks like the increasing use of the shift is actually reducing the number of plays a 2B makes:  From '15-'18, the league average Rf/9 has declined in linear fashion:  4.78, 4.59, 4.41, 4.17.  Weird, huh?

But if Dee Gordon can not run, he's not valuable to the M's.  He has to steal bases and cover ground at 2B.  That's his game.  Minus that, he gets pretty heavy for a 170 lb guy.  But to steal enough bases he has to hit north of .300.  In his 4 full-time, everyday, non-injured seasons (counting this one) he's averaged about 53 or 54 infield hits (pro-rating this season's total).  Reduce that by any significant factor and things get dicey really quick.  

Early speculation, I know.  But a week of a hobbled Dee Gordon isn't really any more valuable than a week of him out of the lineup and healing.  

BTW, did you see the report that Cano is taking some grounders at 3B right now...just to expand his flexibility.  

 

Comments

1

Did not see the Cano/3B report. I'm anxious to see what Cano's attitude actually is towards position changes in general (in case it's different than what he says in the press). 

2

Greg Johns is reporting that it isn't too serious and is basicalyl a day to day thing.  However, a Gordon ankle owie is way differnt than a Cruz or Healy ankle owie.  His value is almost totally built upon wheels and range.  Even just with a "tweaked" ankle, his value declines quickly.

4

We started 5 guys who began and ended the game with OPS’s below .700.

At the end of the game Gordon stood at .650, Seager (including his single and double) at .689, Zunino at .655, Maybin at .677 and Heredia at .642.

Healy is at .715 but .699 looks pretty attainable.

Even with Cano and Span, we still field 4 sub-.700 bats.  When was the last time a playoff team did that?  Can’t be too common.  

i have many things to say, none very constructive.

6

Can you imagine the reaction of the fan base if, after all the expectations built on the team's first-half performance, the M's not only squander a ten-plus game Wild Card lead and don't make the playoffs but, but don't even end up that close? If the way they have been playing for nearly a month now continues? If "Finally!" is the bait and "Same Old Mariners" is the switch? If Punch becomes Judy? If a night at the ballpark again becomes "Remember Edgar's Double? and "Didja see that boat race on the scoreboard?" If Lucy pulls back the football AGAIN just as Charlie Brown is certain he can kick it? If the joke is again on the Mariners believers instead of the doubters?

7

With his "you can't be your self when you're hurt" remark about his big toe.  Not really supposed to give up scouting intel like that, but I guess he couldn't resist.

'spot on Keith.  Gordon needs his wheels to be a semi-impact playa.

8

....if you want to know just how inept the M's have been at the leadoff spot.....at least in terms of Billyball, CTZ stuff.

https://writethepine.wordpress.com/2018/08/07/the-mariners-leadoff-spot-...

Against all RHP our leadoff hitter should be Ben Gamel, sporting a .379 OBP vR this year.

Maybin's .344 vL.  Let him lead off then.

vR:  Gamel, Segura, Cano (soon), Cruz, Haniger, Seager, Span, Zunino, Gordon

vL: Maybin, Segura, Cano, Cruz, Haniger, Seager, Zunino, Span, Gordon

Since the beginning of July we have played 30 games.  We've scored more than 4 runs in only 6 of those.  The A's have done it 16 times.

We're not winning games rolling out Heredia's glove.  Cano's going to help, for sure, but let's make the commitment to score some runs and take the pressure off the arms.  Dipoto already blew it by not acquiring another starting arm so let's help out the guys we have.

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