Hector Noesi Update, 7.7.12 - Alternate Paradigms, Dept.

=== Viewed through the W/L, ERA Paradigm ===

Noesi was 2-11, 5.77 when they pulled the plug.  

For those of you under 25, that statline is shorthand for 2 wins, 11 losses, and 5.77 earned runs allowed per 9 innings.  For those of you under 35, a gentleman named Mike Parrott once went 1-16, 7.28 for the 1980 Mariners before they took him out of the rotation to ensure that he wouldn't lose 20 games.

Left in the rotation for 2012, Noesi would have had 15-16 more starts in which to go (say) 2-9, with five no decisions, and finish at a glorious 4-20, 5.77, a statline that would have lived -- as Parrott's did -- for all eternity.  As it turned out, Jack Zduriencik was able to resist the siren call of this 4-20, 5.77 season.

My point?  Let's not oversell the lad, what say.  The batted balls against him were a Safeco-and-defense-aided .224, and yet he was still achieving levels of run permission that were gasp-inducing.


=== Viewed through the Scouts' Paradigm ===

Two days -- two -- before Noesi was sent down, the ROOT TV broadcast was pitching Hector Noesi as an elite starter in search of a leeeeeeeeeettllllle more concentration.  Wow, he was soooooo tough in spots against the Red Sox.  "He pitched me like it was the 7th game of the World Series," Papi said.

When the Mariners acquired Noesi, many scouts believed that Noesi was more talented than - wait for it - Michael Pineda.  The question, in their minds, seemed to be whether Noesi's elbow would bounce back, not whether his stuff was nuclear.  Lo and behold, he was hitting 97, 98 MPH in winter ball.


=== Viewed through the SSI Paradigm ===

Before the season started, SSI pointed out that Hector Noesi was a moving target, not just on one or two axes but on a dozen different axes.  He was moving from the bullpen to the rotation.  He was moving from PED's to natural performance.  He was moving from elbow surgery to strength buildup.  He was moving to Safeco, was moving around in his pitch selection, and in ten other ways.

Four months later, the situation hasn't changed much.  It's still a master-level Sudoku challenge to assign Hector Noesi a template.  Does he want to be, in his fantasy world, the second coming of Matt Garza?  Max Scherzer?  Pedro Astacio?  Ervin Santana?  

Nobody knows, including Hector Noesi.

SSI cheerfully admits that it just does not yet grok the 2013 Hector Noesi.  If you know somebody who does, drop a dime in a pay phone.


=== Viewed through the Pitch Arsenal (F/X) Paradigm ===

... maybe we better split this out.  Grok'ing the eleventeen potential templates is like grabbing a wheel o' water.


Part Two




In the book, and in the film (which I watched for the first time the other night), you get the clear picture that (many) MLB scouts are stuck on whether the guy "looks" like a ballplayer.
Noesi is 6'3, 200 lbs and easy-chucks up impressive heat. He looks like he'll get you out.
Yet in 152 MLB innings he give up a tater-and-a-half every 9 innings, only K's 6 guys and walks 3.
OK, OK...he's only 25, I know. But while he K'ed the snot out of guys in A ball, he hasn't done it above that level: 7.8 per in AA and 6.4 in AAA.
So it looks like his easy heat kills A guys, overmatches AA guys, challenges AAA guys, and looks like tater-salad for MLB guys.
He can still get better, he only had 42 AAA innings coming into the year.....But I'm seeing a guy who looks like he should get you out....but doesn't.
Iwakuma is better.

Lonnie of MC's picture

...laughing at the thought of professional scouts grading out a player on how he "looks". I joke around that I scout players by the color of their uniforms. I didn't realize that what I was doing was actually a process approved by many professional scouts.
While I'm here on the soapbox, I have to ask why you would want to spend any time banging out words on Hector Noesi? What's next? Blake Beavan? Seriously, if I lived anywhere remotely associated with the PNW I'd be heading up to Everett on a weekly basis to catch some of the next phenoms. You might just kick yourself for not checking out Victor Sanchez, the next great young arm in the system. Now, they are talking about Mike Zunino starting his professional career at Everett.
Dude, make the time to go watch a game or two!


Beavan and Noesi are (potentially) still part and parcel of the M's future.
So it makes sense to write about them, especially in the context of "What's wrong with Noesi?"
I'm sure that Sanchez will eventually get his time around here.


"Don't worry about the present, 5 years from now will be fine" only works for so long. Noesi has a much better chance to impact the Mariners in the next 3 years than Sanchez, who still has to stay healthy and survive all the levels of the minors, AND not get traded. We'd better be talking about Noesi, considering what we gave up to get him over here, and what we passed on to choose him.
If we're not gonna talk about Noesi, why talk about any Mariners? Who needs to talk about Montero with Zunino starting in Everett, right? The majors count too, Lonnie - is there some reason your recent posts over here have been angrily dismissive both of the Ms players and the writers discussing them? Is the big-league club really bothering you?

ghost's picture

...I would declare him not a worthy fan of the team. :)
The big league club is really frustrating right now...my girlfriend and I were watching the game last night and the Mariners were winning easily and I was still getting angry at them...angry at the .240 averages and the bad K/BB and the large number of pop-ups and how bored I was with all of their pitchers, especially Vargas and I badly I wanted to see half the team back in AAA learning how to actually play baseball while the other half got DFAd. She was like "you're winning...why are you so annoyed?" and I went on a mini-rant about how there was no excuse for the Mariners to have fallen this far and hwo I was sick and tired of bridge players and of HOPING that we could grow a kid who could actually hit.
I want Ackley, Smoak, Montero (yes...even Montero) sent down to AAA just to wake them up and snap them out of this...I'm so tired of watching them flail away like idiots (Montero, Smoak) or be way WAY too careful (Ackley, Saunders again...we thought he was cured but he's not). I want Vargas traded, Millwood kept just to finish out the year but then let go and League DFA'd if we can't get anything for him in trade. I want Jaso playing every day and Olivo to be his back-up.
I'm just done with it...the growing pains...I expect them...but that doesn't mean I want to watch.


It's really hard to watch their struggles. I wrote an article on my frustration with puzzle pieces and getting them to fit into a complete, winning picture, but it seems that might have been lost as it's been 24+ hours and it's not posting.
But what's really hard for me is that often - especially on the road - it doesn't feel like we're THAT far away. A couple fewer starting pitching miscues or bullpen mistakes and our road team would be tremendous. Then we get home and our hitters drown in the Sound. It's soul-killing.
But that's why we talk about it. ;) Catharsis. Until we get the joy of the turnaround, the release of cathartic rage is all we've got.
I'm not getting the same excitement from these top-5 picks we keep "earning" y'know.

Lonnie of MC's picture

...of the role that Noesi and Beaven could be playing in the future with the Mariners. I think that the odds of them actually playing any sort of significant role wanes by the day, and that maybe their salad days with the team have actually already happened.
The pitching depth in the system is too deep for unproductive pitchers like Noesi and Beaven to be thought of as little more than short-term insurance.
As long as these guys are in the system and working their way up, Noesi and Beaven are merely place holders:
Danny Hultzen
Taijuan Walker
James Paxton
Andrew Carraway
Erasmo Ramirez
Anthony Fernandez
Brandon Maurer
James Gillheeney
Cameron Hobson
Trevor Miller
Seon Gi Kim
Jordan Shipers
Victor Sanchez
Dylan Unsworth
Jose Valdivia
Jochi Ogando
Charles Kaalekahi
Rigoberto Garcia
Wander Marte
Jordan Pries
Tyler Pike
All of these guys rate more pub than Noesi and Beavan because all of them potentially have a shiny future with the Mariners. Noesi and Beaven, like I stated above, are place holders.
This is all just my opinion and I retain the right to be wrong ;)

Lonnie of MC's picture

...proximity to the greater Seattle area. I'm completely blown away that anyone who lives just a few hours from Everett hasn't gone up there yet to watch him pitch and then give a good detailed write up with charts and graphs and all the neat-o things that make reading the stuff here so worthwhile. Once Sanchez leaves Everett the locals will not get another chance to see him live for at least 3 years.
Maybe I am angry with this team and I'm taking it out on others. Maybe not. It really doesn't matter in the greater scheme of things and I will refrain from coming across like that in the future.


I dearly - DEARLY - wish Noesi had the intelligence and competitive fire on the mound that some of our other pitchers have. Even so, he's got gifts that can still be harnessed while he hope he can absorb those missing traits either via teaching or osmosis.
He's only had basically 3 professional seasons (minors and bigs COMBINED).  If he's washed up at this point then we should throw Paxton overboard next year if he's not TOR by then.  Erasmo has basically the same amount of innings as Noesi, give or take half a season, and Noesi had better minor league control with more Ks. Anthony Fernandez just got to AA and has the same # of pro innings as Noesi.
Hector Noesi, minors: 8.2 hits, 0.6 HR, 8.7 K, 1.7 BB/9.  3.17 ERA in 377 IP. He wasn't a HR magnet, he's got an amazing (5:1) K:BB ratio and he kept the hits down while striking out 9 per.  That's all sandwiched around injury-shortened or lost years, a couple of orgs, starting and relieving, and a rocket-like trajectory up the minors.
It's hard to make hay off of his 6 weeks in AAA or half a season in AA.  He had ridiculous control that's gone away as he's been pummeled, he had low HRs turn into a homerfest... it's been ugly. 
Nobody's angrier at Noesi's failures than me - I've been harping on them all year.  But the guy has an arm and 3 months of failure doesn't doom him for all time.  He's got a hurdle to get over, the biggest hurdle any minor leaguer faces.  It's taken Brandon Morrow most of 6 years to get over it.  #1 pick Hochevar still hasn't (unless this past month is the step, which I'll believe when I see it).  Cliff Lee got obliterated his first big-league season after a Paxton-esque minor league career, and Johan Santana was pathetic in his first big league experience, so much so that he was demoted to the pen and then the minors.  He wasn't a full-time starter until his 5th season in the bigs.
Noesi's not ready.  Maybe he won't ever be, but I'm not making that call now.  He's finally been demoted and now he's got 2 months to work on things in the minors to see if he can be in the mix next Spring. It could be as simple as a mechanical adjustment from the stretch or a different slider grip.  Losing your place in line doesn't mean we shoot ya and throw you in a ditch. :)  Not yet, anyway.
The cautionary take of Matt Thornton, who couldn't throw a strike for us and can't miss for the White Sox, should be proof that the lightbulb can go on at any time.  The Sox crowed that they were gonna change his plant foot and he'd instantly get control.  And he did.
I'd hate to give up Noesi to another org that can fix his issues from the stretch with a minor adjustment and receive a #3 starter in the bargain.  We should definitely try to patch up Humpty Dumpty first.
In the MINORS, that is.

Lonnie of MC's picture

... Jordan Shipers to make me look brilliant :)

Anonymous's picture

His low Ks are starting to concern me, but I'm always happy to see him do well. He's absolutely destroyed lefties, and was good against them last year too IIRC.


needs to be replaced by one depicting decapitation with chain saws. I can just see it now, the patient writhing and screaming in utter agony on a gurney, fluids and tissue flying around the room, the camera panning to Jack as he calmly intones, "We know you fans are enduring a lot of pain right now. Trust us, we know what we're doing, and soon you'll be happy we did it."


I just stop watching them and read the blogs instead, which is more fun and more condensed anyway. Rather than endure gross indignities such as the four hour July 9 snoozefest (I could have spent Sunday afternoon watching that!), you can just tune in here for a few minutes now and then and be guaranteed to learn about the most interesting happening in Marinerland.
The games would be more interesting if each player wore a camera and you could hear what they were saying, and could toggle between the players.
"Bring up the Wedge-Cam. I think he's getting upset", would be a common source of entertainment.

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