Pepper: Ichiro, and the M's K/BB ratio

 ..... 

=== Ichiro ===

Is closing in on 3,700 base hits between MLB and NPB, with NPB being the league that smokes MLB every time they play in the World Baseball Classic.

At this point, it's very similar to talking about a Negro League ballplayer who had 3,700 hits for the Monarchs and Yankees -- if the Monarchs were kicking the Yankee's keisters in the exhibitions back then.

Forgetting for a second what 3,700 hits does not mean, think for a second about what it does mean.  Early next year, Ichiro will pass Hank Aaron be baseball's all time hits leader, except for Cobb and Rose.

Ichiro has racked up far more safe hits, on the green grass of ML* ballparks, than Willie Mays did.  Take Mays' hits, and add 400, and that's where Ichiro is so far.

...

Ichiro's at .310/.340/.475 in September, about .300/.330/.400 the last month as he woke back up and started running at 200 hits.

In the year 2010, at age 36, Ichiro hit .315 with a .360 OBP and a .400 SLG.  That's what SSI presumes as his 2012 production, because we have predicted it, it has occurred, and it will continue to occur for the next two weeks.   Look, if you know he's going to do it the next two weeks, then obviously that's still his level of ability, right?

  • .300 to .320 AVG
  • 30 doubles, a few triples and homers
  • 40 SB's
  • 40 BB's

In other words, a leadoff hitter, one that MANY Seattle Mariners teams would have killed to own.

I'm not going to worry about Ichiro for 2012 until he's hitting badly on May 15.  He probably won't be.

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=== K to BB ratio ===

The Mariners' hitters are striking out a mortal ton, and ... also, they're not walking much.  Think Sully is discussing this at the moment.

Eric Wedge seems genuinely pleased by this, which will send most sabermetricians (not least of which Bill James) screaming into the night.  But here is SSI's attempt to articulate what Eric Wedge is thinking of.  If a PGA pro fixes your golf swing, you are definitely going to shoot worse the very next round.  Before shooting better, much better.

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Right now there's a simpler explanation.   The last 30 days:

  • 6:18 EYE ... Kyle Seager
  • 5:28 EYE ... Trayvon Robinson
  • 5:27 EYE ... Casper Wells
  • 0:11 EYE ... Justin Smoak
  • 7:37 EYE ... Mike Carp
  • 14:30 EYE ... Dustin Ackley

Kyle Seager is going to run an EYE considerably better than 0.33, but right now, the Mariners are just playing a bunch of very young players together.  That's number one.

...

It's true, though, that Smoak and Carp are swinging from their tobacco cans, and Eric Wedge is looking on smilingly.  They've got the PWR dialed up to 11 and Wedge is letting them get away with it.

It's zero worry in 0H 2012.  In 1H 2012, it will be time to add some brain to that brawn.  Considering the players involved, and their track records, most of them are nothing to worry about.

 

 

Comments

1
ghost's picture

Despite the 0:11 K/BB ratio, Smoak looks five times better at the plate.  He looks like April Smoak.  With the ambition dialed up to 11 and the line drives and deep flies to show for it again.  That to me is the best news of September.

2

Smoak looks disconcertingly subject to the effects of his own state-of-mind...
The talent, it says here, is above question ... the mental toughness, a bit less so ...

3

Smoak looks disconcertingly subject to the effects of his own state-of-mind...
Well... he did lose his Dad this year.  That alone should get him a pass on anything atributed to state of mind.

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