It pains me to say that...but 9 K, 10 BB, 5 HR doesn't lie. Let's hope the offense gets to Verlander early.
PREDICTABLE FAWNING Dept.
Back when Paxton was leaning back too far, back when he was wild, he got hit around one game and he remarked "I've either got to spot my fastball or get a breaking pitch over. One of the two." He said that or something that amounts to exactly that. The point was, nobody can get away with ONE weapon. He needed two.
Fast forward to nowadays... in the Shout Box during the first 2 hitters we ticked off 6 weapons, as opposed to two weapons. The most nuclear of these is the fastball inner 1/3 to righties. Paxton is distinctive here in that a Cliff Lee will throw it precisely on the inside edge or just off the edge inside, but Paxton will take a good 5, 6 inches of the plate in addition! to that. It's more like 6 inches than 5. And Paxton will throw that inner-third fastball thigh high, or over the hands.
It's a good candidate for the most unhittable pitch I have seen. Even Randy Johnson rarely threw jam pitches at RH's after he hit J.T. Snow.
Other weapons... knee pound fastball. Straight challenge fastball first pitch to a "patient" hitter. Yakker for a strike or yakker in the dirt (which he wasn't throwing Wednesday; the curve was sailing high). We call it a "foshball" because it's a slider that comes nowhere near back to 0" vertical; he throws that in a U shape ... (1) back door to nip the outside, (2) way in tight to RH, (3) below the knees.
That's a good 8 weapons and he needs two. In fact Wednesday he threw like 85 heaters, 15 foshes and 15 yakkers because he only needed the fastball plus the AVAILABILITY of the fosh.
In 4 of 5 games this year, Paxton has been able to hit the inside 6" and has had at least one offspeed pitch. That is 3 weapons plus. Therefore in 4 of 5 games he has thrown a shutout. When he has 3 weapons (let alone 8) it is him, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale and maybe Sherzer at his best. Syndergaard when he's on.
This 4 games out of 5, Paxton's been considerably better even than the rookie Pineda, as good as any Mariner ever with the POSSIBLE exception of Randy Johnson. Of course Unit got his system down and then did it game-in, game-out for a couple decades. But Paxton in April has been no worse than Johnson's 20 years. And he's got the 39:6:0 slash line, in 32 IP, to show for it.
Enjoy. The reason to watch sports is to see something special. From Griffey through Ichiro through now Paxton, the M's have had more than their fair share of dominators. ... this is where Silentpadna and I came in, gushing over Randy Johnson being the next Sandy Koufax when out-of-towners would go "Hoo Haw! What's the matter, was Lefty Grove not available?" It's come full circle :- )
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER 8 RUNS
I think it was Wishhiker who Shouted that the M's now have the #1 runs total in the American League. This despite a lost first week in Houston and LA? Edit out that first week* and the M's lead the American League like the Big Red Machine: 137 OPS+, .361 OBP wayyyyy out in front, twice the normal team's SB's, tons of HR's and ISO ... without ever having their lineup on the field at the same time.
But my fave stat, 11% BB and 16% K whereas the #2 team, Detroit, is at 9/22. Actually the M's EYE (BB/K) ratio is 0.69 since the first week, compared to the average 0.44 and the White Sox at 0.27. The Red Sox led the league last season at 0.48. Here the M's are clipping along at 0.69 lately.
Hasn't Paxton won by 5-0, 6-0 and 8-0? All things considered I like it when the M's destroy their enemies.
SORRY, I CHANGED THE SUBJECT THERE FOR A SECOND
OUR NEW SHORTSTOP
He just looks so SUDDEN. And strong. And seeing the ball so great. For ten games he's looked like our best player, better than Boomstick, better than Seager. His results actually haven't quite been there yet, but the LOOK ... yowch.
Speaking of the Taijuan deal, Diderot reminded us that if we'd dealt him for Upton, we'd a had to give up Paxton to get Segura and Haniger. What a first half Haniger has had this month. 2.0 WAR per b-ref, 1.5 WAR per Fangraphs. Quite enough for one player before the All-Star break, ya?
SAMPLE STATS THIS WEEK, LAST 7 GAMES
Danny Valencia .294/.400/.588 and he's hitting the ball with authority the other way.
Boomstick all the way back, hitting over .500 the last 7, 10 games. 11 ribbies this week. He's chasing Motter furiously in average launch velocity, trailing only 93.7 to 94.3.
Dyson hitting .320 with 4 SB's. He's very last in the majors in launch velocity, him and Billy Hamilton the two guys below 80. LOL. But he does have one "barrel" (a ball with a theoretical BABIP of .500). One "barrel" for Dyson equals the one "barrel" that James Paxton has coughed up. It's going to be a whale of a season-long contest.
Guillermo Heredia .333/.391/.524. In fact the following players have OPS in the neighborhood of 1000: Valencia, Boomstick, Heredia, Haniger (sigh), Segura, Cano, Motter ... Seager slugging .500. The only guys not hitting are Zuumball and Leonys Martin...
The Mariners have scored 5+ runs in 12 of 16 games. Wow. I wonder how often you see that. Certainly from Endy and Casey not that often. Let's hope De Jong knows how to Five and Dive.
Their run differential is +107 -104, meaning of course their expected W/L is 11-11. Fate will give us back those four games pretty soon. Um.
PSYCHED UP ABOUT BEN GAMEL
Dr. D of course agrees that Gamel's chance to have a Brett Gardner career is like 15%, if that. However, to have Brett Gardner's rookie age-25 season of .270/.345/.380 with SB's and defense in 250 AB's --- > Gamel need only play a terrific RF, hit like he's been hitting, and show his 120 SX on the bases.
He might not. But I'll be rooting for that kind of a 250-AB season from Gamel. ... in theory you could have a bench of Taylor Motter, Brett Gardner :- ) Carlos Ruiz and whatever Boog Powell is. That would be the bench, not the MOTO. Sacre Bleu.
HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON!
Or, if you can't find a like button, hit SportSpyder and link us up to something. Or tell us you disagree about Paxton being a good player. Or tell us why every new pitcher we try is terrible. Whatever. We're flexible :- )
Could be a rainout Thursday. Maybe with Iwakuma vs Verlander that's the way to go? Nah. 538.com gives us 43%.
:- ) When it's two scrubs starting I just assume a 2-1 game any more... namely, any time we play the Orcs...
I told you guys that Heredia looked beefed up. back in ST. He rode that ball last night.
Gamel looked fine, except that he was too willing to take Strike 1 right down the pike. But he worked counts and fouled pitches off and looked fine, other than the 2nd AB where he was schooled on the Strike 3 curve ball that he whiffed on. It was 4 inches outside the one he just took for a strike...that was great pitching. Agree on the 250 AB's. Let him settle in...he's a big-leaguer.
But we might see Valencia in RF today, with Vogs back in the lineup. Or Motter, if Seager can go.
"Sudden" is a wonderful phrase for Segura. Again, I thought he looked like a young Clemente on his singles. Hands held close and then the "sudden" late attack to the ball. Remind me again: We got Segura AND Haniger for Martel and T. Walker? Really? Cripes!
And yeah, you noticed Heredias size early on, several doubles followed soon after but he didn't start with the HR until weeks into the season. He wasn't playing really at all yet until then, but he did slug .540 this spring with 9 doubles and a triple.
Ya Keith, so .... what's your projection for Heredia's slash line once he gets settled in?
At the plate Segura reminds me of Bill Madlock. The more I see him hit, the more I think the comparison is apt.
Please lock him up soon to a Seager type deal.
Doc, I don't see a like button anywhere and must have missed what a SportSpyder is? Sure love the way the M's are hitting the ball though. Excited to see Gamel up now with Motter, a couple of intense dirt-dogs! They give us a bit of Rose/Dykstra spirit to pair with the infectious Latin enthusiasm :)
In the blue banner above the content next to the other social media sharing buttons. When you like it, I think it's going to facebook?
Had no idea there was a like button. It was a (very) little joke about youse guys putting in a comment each.
Now that we know there IS a like button I'll have to come up with some other groan-inducing shtick...
5+ runs a game and that's WITH a still unacceptable performance with RISP, at .228 for the season. We have 8 players without a hit with the bases loaded (though a couple of those have a walk), Zunino with a cool 0-6 with 4 k's. Can you imagine if and when we are just barely league average in those areas?
We know that Haniger and Motter aren't going to hit like Mays so that will come back to earth, but it's fun to think about this offense on max volume isn't it?
Why won't he hit like Mays? What was he doing that he was incapable of continuing to do?
I think he means he'll hit more like Mantle.
...I haven't adopted a player and loved him on my team with such fervor since Edgar.
But I have been trying to see what it is that he is doing right now that can be exploited later to slow him down. I don't see it. Maybe he's hitting into a bit of good luck on balls in play...but that's about the only think I can spot that seems destined to change.
He legitimately seems like a .300/.400/.500 guy and even .600 SLG some years. His SLG floating close to .600 already is the thing most surprising me. .300/.400/.600 is Mantles career, basically ( .298/.421/.557) and Maniger is right there. If he's .300/.400/.600 largely as a surprise...
Well he could be HoF
Something I've thought about along those lines is that if Cano continues to age well, Zduriencik may have stolen a HoF cap from the Yankees. Years to go on that too.
Thank you Matt. I'm either not seeing well or maybe firefox does not display the like button. I also don't see any type of social media buttons anyhere on the page or in the blue "Seattle Sports Insider" banner. Is it a firefox thing possibly (anyone else)?
Posted by jemanji 4/27/17 6 Comments... then symbols for Facebook, etc. with "Like" at the far right.
Is the consistency in scoring. They've only cleared 10 runs once (11), hitting 10 exactly one other time. 9 three times. That R/G should soar when they get the inevitable 15+ run games in there. With this offense a couple, few, 20+ run games might be inevitable.
Gloomy injury scenarios aside, I'm glad to put Heredia to the test in full-time duty, and see Gamel get a chance to do what Heredia was recently doing.
I just... kinda hope... we can reclaim a reliable starter from the Gallardo/Iwakuma pair that Miranda holds up under exposure, and that Paxton stays healthy.
Dr. Demented, you are on the M's marketing staff in charge of "Oblique Activities" (veiled reference to Haninger).
Your continued use of Gene Wilder and Marty Feldman headshots in thread photos does not show the 440 v electrical cords in their hands.
My guess is they can only build up enough juice in their mojo machine to dose one or two M's per game.
Maybe you only had to wave the cord at Valencia, but something sure happened. You had one charge ready for the Gamel returned from Triple A, or Segura from the wasted vastlands. You just smiled at Boomstick and wiggled your waggle, and it worked.
And maybe Marteen short-circuited when you tried it on him.
How does one splain the most runs in the Leak, along with nearly the most losses?
Now, please adapt the fine tuning to the piching staff, or create a new model.
p.s. yes, new Dyson and Segura contracts offsets any dumping Marteen frowns tha linger
If your next thumbs-up (after Gallardo) goes to De Jong.
And I thought it was "Dr Demento" ... that shtick about Dyson and Segura something you got wind of, or ?
We presume that he is properly chastened? Don't really want him blocking the line for Gamel and even Boog Powell. Tank O'Neill probably starts in 2018. But I guess $5 mill is $5 mill?
And will report to Tacoma.
The two gamers bring it home! Heredia gave it a crack too on the hustle double but of course they still can't get the call right even with the help of replay :(
Hit important singles, run around the outfield like a gazelle with a mitt stuck in its horns scooping up all the flies, and generally play the part of an acceptable major league outfielder. So far so good.
I'm surprised no one claimed Marteen, especially the Pirates.
But a friend far more knowledgeable put it, when I referenced the Pitts frustration in Osuna and Jaso defense, he said: "so you think they want D that is hitting .100 ... no thanks".
IF IF IF he hits in Tacoma, and, if he hasn't burnt his bridges with office and field staffs, I would guess they will groom him as a June trade, or, perhaps Gamel will go at that time
Gamel was forced out of NY because they had 5 or 6 outfielders, and Gamel had no options left. It was a pickup opportunity for DePoet.
Marteen was coming out of purgatory in the Ranger organization, and DePoet picked up the opporunity.
Dyson, and Haniger, and Heredia will have to go way wrong to not stay here ... and Motter is their cushion for the bench spot.
I'm only watching the wind when I see them extending Segura and Dyson, but, this would keep steam building to shine some of those seatzz for the expected buttzz increased which will come with summer and positive news.
What do I know? I tried hard to trae Paxton (and an Inf) to Tampa for Price and Zobrist.
Now Paxton is sliding into the top 10 in SP's in thee whole weird world.
But, this year I switche from Paxman to dump Walker instead.
And Marte was not paying attention to "the Mariner Way".
And, looky here.
A month and a half ago, O'Neill was here by June, no question about it.
Well, Kuma surpriseed me today.
But, I never mind tossing out guesses
Agreeing with most of it. The likelihood an OF got traded by July went to 99.99% or so the day Dyson was acquired. Maybe I'm off by .01. Many expected it within a week.
O'Neill may be up by July or he may still be working on cutting down his low contact% swings. He doesn't so much need to make more contact as less swings with weak to no contact. But that's been his weakness all along.
Just one thing, Dipoto listed things he liked about Gamel when he got him and guess what was first on the list? “He’s optionable, he’s young and he’s athletic, three of things we are looking for,” Dipoto said.
I do enjoy your thoughts in general though I haven't often found occasion to reply.