Q. LO scenario?
A. The slider and curve turn out to be worthless, the sailing changeup gets hit, the 91 fastball is overexposed, and Noesi has to go back to the pen. A fail is quite feasible here.
Fastball heat is okay, but he's a two pitch pitcher and without fastball control he gets DESTROYED. His either can't or won't pitch backwards with the change, so being able to hit his spots early with the heat is crucial.
He's been hammered and KOed early in two of three starts. That's two strikes against him. Third time that happens, he's out of the rotation, IMO, maybe kicked all the way to Tacoma to continue to work on being a starter without hurting the big club. Erasmo looked good again out of the pen, and his changeup is nasty to lefties and righties, which isn't always the case.
Good to see Iwakuma. He does exist! The rumors of a Japanese pitcher in the pen are not a vicious lie after all.
Getting destroyed by the Ultra-Robo-Death version of Furbush is painful, though. Sale and his wonky mechanics can be devastating and tonight he was for sure. If that was how Furbush was all the time, I'd understand trading Fister for him + a few. Maybe down the line.
Of course, that'd be another arm trying to cram into the rotation. Noesi better straighten up and fly right.