POTD Jesus Montero, C (2)

Q.  What's the upside?

A.  BaseballHQ has him ranked as a better prospect than Buster Posey!  And Posey is as good as it gets, excepting the galaxy-class Mauers and Strasburgs and Lincecums.

They, and others, state that Montero has as much power as anybody in the minors -- he's a Dunn-level 75, 80 power guy, or real close to that.

And, get this, he's got HIT (contact) ability well better than average into the bargain.  The compact stroke and the natural feel for the ball gives him that.


You might wonder about his EYE, but what would his EYE be right now if he were in low-A ball with the other 20-year-olds?


Q.  How's he doing this year?

A.  Fine.  As a 20-year-old catcher in a new AAA league with new pitchers he hasn't seen, he's hitting .220/.292/.346 but with an unlucky BABIP. 

His EYE is strong at >0.50 and he's getting on top of the ball well (high GB rate, good LD rate, very few popups).


Q.  So, one Yankee prospect you buy into, eh.

A.  He's underrated.  BaseballHQ (buy their book here) gives him a 9B rating -- 70% chance at an All-Star career, LOL -- and gives these attributes:

  • PWR:  80
  • HIT:  65
  • SPD:  30
  • DEF:  30
  • "Natural" hitter (they mean he's comfortable with different pitch depths and angles)
  • Has among best power in minors
  • Profiles as top hitter
  • Makes easy, hard contact and (LOL) "handles bat well" (Montero is actually a great hit-and-run guy; imagine Adam Dunn who could Ichiro the ball the other way at will)
  • Likely to move off C; bad footwork, average-solid catch-and-throw guy

As to the defense, you see that a guy who weighs 250 lbs. is not going to move like Jason Kendall back there.  He's not going to be agile.  But if he handles the staff and his CS% is good -- as Montero's is -- that's a tradeoff you're fine with.


Q.  Better or worse than two comp picks?

A.  You've got to be joking.   Late first-round picks, even, hit your system as #10 org picks maybe.  Remember Josh Fields?  It's rare that you come up with a Nick Franklin, and even if you do, that's hardly the same thing as a AAA player who's two years ahead of a HOF career track.

Comp picks are fine.  But they are apples-and-oranges against any ML-ready AAA blue-chipper, much less a potential HOF'er of Jesus Montero's magnitude.


Part 3



Taro's picture

I'd bet on the over in regards to Lee as well, although I think its become a pretty extreme buyer's market since 2008-2009.
Lee is good enough that someone will burn at least one premium prospect.

Taro's picture

Pretty much, everything happened after the economy collapsed.. If we go for quality over quantity, I think Z can still do really well with Lee. Everybody is going to want him.


I don't ever remember a July trade target who would excite me as much as Cliff Lee would right now.
You'd have to go back to 1998 and Randy Johnson, I think.  And Lee is more signable than Johnson was that summer.
Capt Jack has a chance to parlay Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez into a new set of cards much more to his liking.
(Would still prefer the M's sign Lee themselves.)

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