I'd say the .290 BA is not sustainable, but showed real, sustainable skills in PX, defensive chops, and "long at bat grinder" (which he always had). He's learned how to get under the ball, which was always the thing holding him back for you, wasn't it, Doc? So yeah...dude is a real power threat for me as long as he's judiciously deployed 85-15 against lefties, with spot starts even in CF in a pinch.
This was a thrilling HQ issue for Dr. D.
If you take these 12 pitchers plus Evan Scribner, then HQ and SSI saw eye-to-eye on only 3 of them. Those three being Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker and Joaquin Benoit. By "seeing eye-to-eye" we don't mean that SSI had Steve Cishek as minus-minus and HQ had him at plus-plus; we mean that on all 10 pitchers, HQ had 1-to-4 very interesting observations that might (or might not) turn around your projection for the season. Slap me silly, I feel like running 20 HQ projections in one article.
Great stuff :- )
Those 12-13 pitchers, HQ talked past me on 10 of them. As to the 12-13 hitters? Major surprises AGAIN on about 10 of them. Hey, I tell ya. This new GM is keeping it lively. He's not just churning the roster, although that would be interesting enough. He's bringing in player after player after pitcher after pitcher who have some kind of Saber Yellow Sticky Note aspect attached to them. Justin De Fratus is no great shakes, but there are a couple of things that suggest "Big Year Coming" to the saberdweeb who is scouring the dumpster lining for stealth grabs. Steve Clevenger is that way. Evan Scribner is. Nate Karns is, obviously. Leonys Martin is a fascinating gamble.
It's just a really cool offseason, Pete, for baseball chat.
What say we do one BaseballHQ Player of the Day - HQ's thoughts, followed by Dr. D's, followed by yours. The Forecaster is the one book I buy every year; you should do the same.
THE Q GOING INTO 2016 WAS:
Gutierrez had just hit an unpossible .290/.350/.620 -- in Safeco. Dreamers (like me, of course) wondered if the time off caused him to figure out baseball, kind of like Kelly Gabbert or Ken Stabler or something. Or maybe if the (?) cure of his disease revealed an Inner Circle Hall Of Famer who had been camouflaged for 15 years or so.
15 homers in 175 at-bats, huh. Lou Gehrig couldn't do that, not right handed in Safeco. Gehrig right handed would hit at most 30 homers, neutral park.
GOOD - Late comeback from disease defied expectations. HctX with friendly G/L/F profile boosted PX. H%, BB% conspired to produce AVG/OBP magic from low CT%.
BAD - The nature of his disease, age, and F-F-F reliability score make 2016 pure speculation.
SLASH LINE - 240/290/450 in 260 AB's with a 4.3 runs per game.
"Gutierrez did square up the ball really well, and when he did the ball had some hair on it. His strikeout rate was dreadful (like 170 per year), but his BABIP (lucky) and his walk rate (not lucky) compensate for the K's. This means that his OBP made, and will make, him DiPoto-friendly, despite the whuffs.
There is no such thing as a more unpredictable baseball player than this one."
Dr. D's ADD
Franklin Gutierrez does indeed swing the bat with real authority now, and he stalks pitches. As he gets older he becomes a legitimately scary lefty-basher. Last year he had the same slash line vs RHP and LHP; Dr. D's prognosis is that he'll be "mehhhh" vs RHP but continue to smoke lefties, perhaps even to the tune of .600 SLG in Safeco.
Dewan had him for +3 plays in left field last year, evenly split :- ) between Shallow and Deep. In other words, he knows how to come in on a ball and how to go back for it. Put him in RF in Safeco, with more room to roam and deeper angles, and given his history ... you can still pencil him in as a plus outfielder.
An exciting role player, boys. Can't ax for much more out of a benchie, can ya.
image: Jay Cox
some else can check it but my memory of his limited at bats in 2013 was that we was a beast then too. Didn't get much more than 100 at bats over the injury riddled season but still smashed 10 homers and 5 something slugging. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I am hoping he gets a a goodly handful of Martin's vs. tough lefty at bats as well... Hopefully we see him for more tha 175 ABs get him to 350!