Marco Gonzales, Then & Now
Dr. D's verdict: farther away than expected ... but farther away from a higher point


THEN (July 21, 2017):  We hoped Marco's elbow would be okay.

NOW (August 23, 2017, one AAA stint and 4 MLB(TM) starts later):  Marco is throwing free and easy, good velocity, bobbing his weight up and down comfortably on the followthrough.  The Mariners are holding him to about 23 pitches per game.  (They did let him go 99 pitches this last time out.)  

So FAR, so good, er, ideal.  The kid does have a muscular short-arm delivery, but some guys like Mark Beuhrle have too.


THEN:  Bat571 reported that Marco was doing pretty good considering his release point has been an issue.

NOW:  He's got good body control and rhythm.  His CG tracks well down the centerline with smooth acceleration and decel.  However, this release point is still pretty sloppy for a major leaguer:



THEN:  Dr. D worried about Marco's touch-and-feel coming off an injury.

NOW:  Marco's changeup is still a pathetic -6 MPH off his fastball, compared to the -14 MPH of a few years ago.  He is artificially compensating for this by burying the changeup below the knees or keeping it way off the plate.

The upside is, huge room for improvement as he regains the separation.


THEN:  We rejoiced in the fact that if we weren't going to get Sonny Gray, we didn't have to give up a Big Four outfielder, or Neidert, or Lewis.

NOW:  Neidert just got named the Pitcher of the Year in his league.  The M's offense, including now Yonder Alonso, has been carrying the club.  Sonny Gray in his four Yankee starts -- for what it's worth -- has gone 5.0 to 6.0 IP with 2-4 runs per start.  He has 17 strikeouts, 11 walks and 1 homer in 23 innings pitched.


THEN:  The Mainframe grokked that if Marco did have a signature changeup, that there were a lot of Ricky Romeros and Jeff Francises and Chris Capuanos giving 100 ERA's with that arsenal.

NOW:  Marco retains the same 60-30-10 mix that he had pre-injury, with 30% changeups, but is fighting a rearguard action until he regains the changeup.  Considering that, he is competing rather well.

If and when he starts "feathering" that change again, it's verrrrry easily to visualize him as a .500 starter, performing for peanuts in a Stars & Scrubs roster.



The M's are -2.0 to the Twinkies, no worries about them.  The M's are -1.5 to the Angels and -0.5 to the Royals, with 35 games left.  Couple of NFL seasons' worth a games left.


David Phelps returns.  Earlier we had asked whether the M's bullpen would hold up to the heavy usage.  Tony Zych's "elbow strain" is a piece of evidence against.  Between Altavilla, Vieira, et al we have lost track of how many RP's they got, though.  And don't forget about Carlos Ruiz


Leonys has been DFA'ed.  Jarrod stays on the DL, while the M's back up GamHeredIger - how did you guys abbreviate that? -- with Taylor Motter followed by Valencia and Boomstick.


Dr D


Your move now,

Dr D




On September 1, roster expansion begins. Given the poor quality of our rotation, I don't see why we shouldn't carry a 12 or 13 man bullpen. :)

This might be exactly the sort of roster that benefits the most from expansion


It'll be interesting to see what he makes of the M's lineup this weekend. (Anticipatory 'bwahaha' here)


Indicates (or hiints) that both Cano and Heredia may need DL stints after last night's dings.  Here we are with no Martin, O'Malley,Smith, Powell etc. able to get the call.  Muno and Aplin  might be next guys up!  


The Yankees lose and get into a brawl (suspensions during the M's series???).
The Royals lose.
The Twinkies, Angels, and Rangers play tonight.


As we stand (post Thursday afternoon, pre Thurdsay night), the Mariners have 63 losses with 34 games to play. If they win every remaining game and the Angels lose once, Royals lose once, and Twins lose twice, we'll make the Wild Card playoff and break the playoffs drought.

Thus, our "magic number" is 38/34. Meaning we need 38 positive outcomes out of 34 remaining M's games.

This isn't a real magic number because we're not leading the race and we're not competing with just one team. Thus, on a night like Tuesday, when we lose and the teams we're chasing don't, our "magic number" can increase.

End of the day 8/23: 39/34
End of the day 8/22: 42/35
End of the day 8/21: 40/36
End of the day 8/20: 43/37
End of the day 8/19: 41/38
End of the day 8/18: 43/39
End of the day 8/17: 47/39
End of the day 8/16: 48/40
End of the day 8/15: 49/41
End of the day 8/14: 53/42 (This was the day the Orioles extended the losing streak to 5).
End of the day 8/13: 50/43
End of the day 8/12: 48/44
End of the day 8/11: 47/45
End of the day 8/10: 47/46 (This was Paxton's last start)
End of the day 8/9: 47/47

So root for the Rangers and White Sox tonight. In the best case scenario, the Mariners take a 36/34 situation into the Bronx tomorrow.



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