Roenis Elias vs Nate Karns
thass a high front side you got there, Nathan


Q.  Why might Roenis Elias be the winning bid, when the Marlins apparently have a yelling crowd that is bidding on the courthouse steps?

A.  Because Elias is really good.

Show me another young ML-ready starter with these things:

  • Quick fastball, loves to bust you IN with it
  • Curve ball that is sometimes one notch short of Erik Bedard's
  • Changeup that legitimately gets garbage swings from RH when it's on
  • [That makes 3, not 2, strikeout pitches.  3 is a lot more than 2]
  • Lefty
  • Has been in the majors and done very nicely (passed that filter AND is closer to his leap)
  • Club-controlled as far as the eye can see

Nobody has all that.  If they do, their org isn't giving them up easily at all.  Tell me when you saw a young ML-ready starter like this last traded and it was not a blockbuster?  Ozuna ain't a blockbuster.

It's very, very easy to imagine Elias moving over to the National League and winning 16 games this year, or if not, certainly next year.


Q.  So why does SSI have Nate Karns so far in front of him?

A.  Makeup and mechanics.

Bat571 spelled out just exactly how loathsome the Marlins' org can be to players it doesn't like.  But Marcell Ozuna got slimed like Ghostbusters, went down to AAA and --- > played his heart out.  He SLGd .558 with an improved EYE ratio.  Then after he was recalled he batted .278/.320/.469 in 42 games.

Roenis Elias got sent down NOT because the org was unsupportive; they were ridiculously supportive, even making excuses for him after he pouted and sulked his way through the numbers game.  I got to admit, that put me way, wayyyy off him.  That was totally uncalled for.  It also calls into question Roenis Elias' ability to deal with adversity.

By the way, if Ozuna in 2015 hit the way he did after his recall last year, he'd hit .270-.280 with 50 doubles and 25 homers.  But of course Michael Saunders had long stretches just like that.  NOT that a comparison to Michael Saunders is a denigration.  It isn't.


Q.  That's why you are a little sour on Elias.  What's the sweet side again?

A.  In contrast to Elias who has been a AA pitcher finding his arm slot and balance ... Karns' mechanics are beautiful ... head still, nice and quiet, smooootth and decisive and controlled accel down the CL ... almost reminds you of Mike Mussina in a 12-6 pitcher.  And Dr. D loves big hoss power RH starters who, in turn, love their overhand yakkers.  

As a tiny incidental little sabermetric quibble, he's got 169 strikeouts in 171 big league innings.  


Q.  Leaving us where?

A.  Karns vs Elias ... it takes me back to the time the M's were going to trade Tino Martinez for either Sterling Hitchcock or Andy Pettitte.  Not saying it's a done deal who Karns and Elias are -- in fact it's too late for Karns to be a historic pitcher -- but that's the inkling here at SSI.  The Yankees decided to hold firm that it had to be Hitchcock.  I hope the same happens here with Nate Karns.

I will give you two Roenis Eliases for one Nate Karns and a throwin.  That's saying a whale of a lot, seeing the value and potential of Roenis Elias.  But trade with me, and we'll see whose ballclub turns out regretting it.

Your mileage may vary,





But I'll roll the Elias dice TWICE (given my 'druthers) rather than roll the Karns dice just ONCE.

Makes no difference, this trade will be about Elias (or Montgomery) and another young arm.

I'll raise my hand. 



My phrasing is a little tongue in cheek.  :- )  In real random games, twice the attempts is worth somethin'.

To phrase it more accurately ... Elias is extremely valuable objectively speaking, but Nate Karns is my kinda pitcher.  I'll go with him every time.

Good stuff Moe.

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