Tuesday Paxton vs Shoemaker Thread


The M's have played well at home.  If they go 2-2 in the non-Paxton games that will leave them where ... 15-and-17?  Going to be at the game tonight, so no live blogging.  Rather, Twittering.  Tweeting?  in any case, @jeff_clarke or search Dr Detecto.  Like Matthew McC in Two for the Money, usually by Thursday we can give you the winners on Sunday.  Or by the 2nd inning we can triangulate the outcome of the homestand.  Worked out just as well for Matthew McC as it usually does for us.

Philosophical Birdwalk:  you know in --- > golf tournaments, or in tennis matches, or in boxing, there doesn't need to be a pennant context.  Tonight's war is epic enough in a vacuum.  What if it were a barnstorming matchup?

Or not.


Checked out the Rainiers last night at Tacoma.  Rob Whalen is a guy who throws three different slowballs with intriguing (unconventional) movement.  He's got three breaking pitches.  I guess he goes in the "can't-miss" category along with Yovanni Gallardo.

Also, Ryan Harper has some big-league arm action on his super change or slow curve or whatever that 75 MPH pitch is.  Anybody know anything about Harper?

The Rainiers scored a big comeback on the strength of Tyler Smith and Mike Freeman, though they later botched the comeback.  Moe Dawg has always been partial to a roster that features at least a couple of middle infielders, which was even more necesssary in April.  Although the Mariners are (mercifully) now running a 4-man bench.

I guess I could use a little persuasion on Tyler Smith.  Haven't considered him much and it's not obvious to me at a glance.  Bring it on amigos.


Felix and Haniger could be back pretty quick.  Dr. D has always been slow to come around on Felix Hernandez, but this latest episode of De Jong / Heston / Flava Flav of the Day has finally, at long last, helped him find some appreciation.  Felix is the #36 rated starter in both leagues, but supposing even that he's the #36 in the American League, well, Rob Whalen ain't going to be.


SSI Denizens aren't enamored with Dan Vogelbach, who we presume will start tonight.  Dr. D has very little doubt that Dan Vogelbach will hit in the majors, albeit perhaps after 300 or so transition at-bats.  The problem is that he has to hit quite a lot.  But you guys can't see his strike zone coverage and his hand-eye coordination?  I'm mystified.


James Paxton is running a 15.5% swing and miss rate.  How is it not 90%.  Early in the game, the question is whether Pax is tossing a few inner-third heaters, and whether his "slashball" or knuckle curve is generating the called strikes.  So far, he's been A-OK on those fronts in 4-of-5 starts.  If that's going to be the routine, Paxton locating his fastball and having at least one offspeed pitch, then the threat of a 1+ ERA becomes quite real.


Bob Dutton predicts pitching staff changes before Tuesday's game.  (I'll go ahead and predict them before Wednesday's game, too.  And Thursday's.)  His suggestion:  Dillon Overton to the rotation.



Dr D




Don't worry Doc, I'm with you on Vogelbunker Hill. We'll hold'em off til we see the whites of their scouting reports.

The unfortunate problem is that we need the production yesterday, not 300ABs from now. Let's hope it's shorter than that.


I don't mind the hyper-churn Dipoto has going on, but if they flush Vogelbach before giving him a REAL chance they are going to regret it. The guy is going to hit, and hit quite well for a number of years. An on base machine whose power will grow eventually when he's comfortable and ready to unleash it.

C'mon, you get one Haniger splash and now everyone has to OPS 1.000 their first 40 AB's or they're toast?


Smoak, Ackley and Montero shoulda been doing what Haniger's doing.  Fate owes us about six Fred Lynns at this point.  Defy that at your PERIL.

Good post Blissed!


With Vogs going down today, we will get a more steady diet of Valencia vs. RHP. 

Oh joy.


And Casey Fien cut?  ... :- O

On the dark side, this is reminding me of George Steinbrenner's first two years. Times three.

On the bright side, a frantic attempt to win TODAY.  I'm down with it.

:: head spinning ::


But can only hope there's direction to Vogelbebach.  Too bad they can't buy the Padres and turn them into the Spiders to get Bach MLB PA without crippling the offense.  I know, you can't have your own farm team in MLB anymore.

Wait, who's playing first now?  What's the difference?  The 1b and C voids in the lineup aren't going to miraculously fill themselves.  Still saying Zunino and Bach having OBP at least was always a key part of my thought of 900+ Runs.  Not looking likely at this point.  This year anyway. 


Sometimes, you just have to look at the guy playing baseball. I'm a saber-minded person who's had a job analyzing the data.

Vogelbach is, visually obviously, not a major league baseball player. Whatever his numbers are in AAA, he will never...not ever...hit for power in the big leagues. Without power, he's a Mike Hargrove level DH. That is...I'd rather have 2007 Jose Vidro than that.

He is the least athletic man I've ever seen at the big league level...his body control is ATROCIOUS. And yes...you have to have some athleticism to hit in the majors or they'll pick you apart by keeping you off your very fragile balance. Which is what they're doing to him right now. He's not just too passive, he's incapable of hitting cripple pitches hard if they are following decent pitches.

I will be personally shocked if he ever turns in a season worth more than 1.5 WAR or so.

tjm's picture

Vogelbach is never going to hit in MLB, in large part because he has no qualities that can keep him in the line-up while he's learning to hit. Worst defensive 1B I've ever seen. And I saw Dr. Strangeglove! Watching him lose that foul pop the other day was frightening. It was a shallow pop one foot inside the first base line, 20 feet in front of him and he missed it by five feet.

Makes DiPoto 0-2 on 1B trades.  You'd think one of them would be at least adequate. I'm fully prepared to go with Motter until Haniger returns and we can put the extra OF at 1B.


Was the PTBNL in the Jose Ramirez deal with Atlanta.  I guess we can roundabout thank Ackley for sucking since his trade-line links up to Harper.  Has a 75 MPH Slider 71 Curve and 77 Change according to Brooks.  

I found the trade reported as Ryan by 2 outlets and there's a Ryan that pitched 2015-16 in an independent league.  But his MiL page:



...though losing Paxton STANK, we're now at a point where we expect to have Haniger, Felix and Paxton each back my the next homestand (according to Goldsmith's Twitter account).

One week from today we're expecting to roll out SS Segura, RF Haniger, 2B Cano, DH Cruz, 3B Seager, CF Heredia, 1B Valencia, C Ruiz, LF Gamel. Even with C a relative black hole, and 1B 'improving' at best... that feels like we forgot to turn off some of the cheat codes.

Oh yeah - and the Felix-Paxton-Kuma-Gallardo-Miranda rotation back in place? I can live with that.

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