Place Yo' Bets
Destiny Draw, Dept.



There were 19 level Three rookie seasons this past year, including Mitch Haniger.  It's POSSIBLE to rank as a Level Three based on youth and speed score.  Regular PT and excellent hitting aren't requirements for this level; we're not talking Level 8.  In fact only 18% of these Three rooks got 100 games or more, Maniger NOT being one of them at 96 games.  LOL.

He finished at .282/.352/.491 with a 126 OPS+ and with Dr. D's unretracted Best Bet status.  Based on the idea that he's going to be a plus fielder, that with his speed he doesn't have to hit specially to get 3 WAR, but that we love his chances to hit very well.  Love his strike zone.

The kid suffered a whale of a serious injury for somebody who opened the bidding at .491.  From Sept. 9 to Oct. 1, 21 games and 100 at-bats, he hit .333/.362/.633.  I'll take 'im if you don' wan' im.  We've hung with players who DIDN'T slug .491 their first few times round.  Like Jesus Montero, and stuff.



You're talking about doubling-tripling a player's chances to star.  There were 9 such rooks last year, one being Ben Gamel.  I'll give you three Ben Gamels for one Mitch Heredia, but still.



Now we've gotten to a 7% chance at the HOF, which is wayyyy up there.  As top o' the deck draws go you don't want to miss yer turn.  This year there were Moncada, Benintendi, and Difo.



We'll skip these section just to encourage your three singletons a month.  Pete Rose is in it, though, with Kris Bryant.


Let's staple one thing in here for those who bore with us this long, however.  James had earlier caught the pattern that a Level One rookie has a 1:1,000 chance to be a great player, to make the Hall of Fame.  When he does, he is a catcher.  The only Level Ones who went on to the HOF were Mike Piazza, Rick Ferrell, Roy Campanella and Monte Irvin.

Oh yeah!  And Edgar.

James' system is self-awarely tough on old, slow rookies who don't hit that great and who don't hit for power.  He seeks assistance with finding the exceptions.  I sent in Heredia.  You know another prime candidate for this?  Dan Vogelbach.

The Mariners have historically had their share of Level One rookies - those who came up kinda old, played kinda meh - who went on to do big things.  Jay Buhner, Raul Ibanez, Tino Martinez, guys who didn't seem special at the time.  (Well, jemanji got his share of arguments on Bone, including from Jim Lefebvre.)

I've got a real sneaking suspicion that Vogelbach is going to go somewhere, have a kinda mini-Youkilis career, and it's going to be real obvious after the fact.  Dan Vogelbach has ZERO issues with slingling pitches around a baseball diamond, as Chris Snelling did not.



88 of these rookies ever existed, of which 86 went on to quality big league careers.  None played in 2017.



Included the single such 2017 player, Cody Belllinger.  Of the 47 such lifetime rookies, only four did not make 3,000 PA's... do you remember the name Mitchell Page?



James reveals the five "nearly perfect" rookies ever:  Joe Jackson, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Vada Pinson, and Mike Trout.

Expand that out to 25 .... the last two rookies to make level 10 were Trout and Harper in 2012 .... until Aaron Judge did it in 2017.   Right before him was Jason Heyward, who "may have the most disappointing career of any super-rookie ever."

Thanks Bill,

Dr D




Wild that Gamel beats Haniger by a level.

I am big on Gamel as I think he ups his HR totals as he learns to poach pitches,  But Haniger is the likely beter bet, in my mind, anyway.

But if I did the math correctly, Gamel's rookie season was better than 95% of historical rookie seasons.


The quality of a season should probably be up-rated the younger a player is when having it...not sure to what guess would be that you'd have to do some back-of-the-envelope math to determine how starting age correlated with average rookie OPS or somesuch and adjust your ratings accordingly.

Re: Game and Heredia and Haniger...

I think Heredia's rookie year was misleading...he got poor ratings because he played the last half of the season with a dislocated shoulder recurring regularly without telling anyone on the team about it, apparently.

But I definitely like Haniger over Gamel. :)


What level of offensive does he need to produce in order to be our starting CF?

I am a huge fan.


Heredia would be a better weapon if he learned how to run the bases...with his speed, he still manages to be horrible at base-stealing and mediocre at baserunning advances on balls in play. He fixes that and hits .280 with decent walks and low Ks, and he's a starter.


It appears the Cards feel they are overloaded with OF'ers and will consider trade offers for Randal Grichuk:

I'm all over doing just that.  A year ago he was a +1.0 dWAR CF'er and he's a 20 HR guy.  I am not worried about his K's, but love the fact that he gives us another bat, a decent glove, and no platoon split, all at a cheap price.   We can make this deal work with the Cards, and I could be quite happy with a mix and match threesome of Gamel, Heredia and Grichuk, to go alongside Haniger.  # of those guys, at least, have CF chops.

If you're getting Otani then you run into a car jam in the OF, unless you convert him to 1B. 

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