The word is, that if Trump wins South Carolina, then the "freight train" is clear all the way to the finish line. ... say what?! ... he has GOT a commanding lead in the SC polls, so isn't that the same as saying that Trump has locked up the nomination?
I'm as flabbergasted as anybody here, whether it be on the left or right side. As with Sanders, I suspect that people are supporting a person they're not very familiar with. Who, for example, would be his Supreme Court Nominee? Would it shock anybody if he put forward a Ginsburg ... or a Bork? Is that a good thing, that we don't know?
He gets 35% of likely Republican voters and the other 65% are splintered. Seems to me that he'd be about 50-50 against Rubio or Cruz. But! Some argue he can get blue-collar Democrats. So what he lacks in right-wing voters, he may gain in center-left voters.
... a Sanders-Trump election would be S-U-R-R-E-A-L.
Q5. Was this really the year when Americans truly got fed up with politicians and gridlock? Or is there something else at play?
The Pope said that it was "not Christian" to build a wall. Dr. D is not a Wall guy, and less so a Vatican guy. But he does notice there is a huge wall that encircles the Pope's city-state, Vatican City. Dr. D has also heard the stat that the U.S.A. allows 2 million immigrants per year, more than the rest of the world combined. (Perhaps that's wrong; the US Census conservatively estimates it at 1.25MM per year.) Vatican City allows precisely 2 immigrants per year. (Wouldn't it be a very safe and charitable place for refugees to live?)
Not Christian to build a wall? ... ?
Dr. D is confused, because his heart (and his wallet) goes out to the disadvantaged in Third World countries. The Statue of Liberty says something about your poor, tired, and weary, yearning to breathe free (though it says little about your jihadists yearning for an iPhone6). That "give me your poor, yearning to breathe free" sentiment is deeeeeeeply American, is it not?
But he does have a wall on his house and a lock on his front door; he can't adopt 1,000 children. A person, or a country, does what it can within its resource constraints.
Q6. Is 1-2 million immigrants per year the right number? Or what is the right number? Or should there be no number?
HILLARY AND AFRICAN-AMERICANS
Camille Paglia has returned to political commentary, by the way.
Major news item this week: African-American groups warned Hillary in severe terms that she can't take their vote for granted. Then, they backed it up by walking across the street to Sanders. Good for them, I guess. Evangelicals (of whom I'm not one) warn Republicans of this all the time, but everybody knows that evangelicals' vote most assuredly can be taken for granted.
Geraldo Rivera was asked why blacks support the Clintons despite some policy issues such as Three Strikes You're Out. He said, it's a simpatico thing. They feel respected. ... if true, that has a certain legitimacy. On the other side of the aisle, when a Donald Trump blusters "I will not allow Christianity to be weakened," that scores points with evangelicals. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
Q7. Would have been too hot even for SSI. :- ) We'll leave it to the imagination of the reader.
Q8. Bill Clinton governed from a relatively centrist position. The suspicion is that Hillary would do the same. Wouldn't a person on the far left feel much more comfortable with Sanders in office than with Hillary?
... Rubio came out with the victory. Hm.
When do you expect the white flags Moe from Kasich, Carson, and Jeb?
Not until the Democrats got shellacked in the midterms because of, ahem, Hillary's radical health care plan. Hillary is a true idealogue who really isn't that far from Bernie on most issues (and he actually has a much more conservative view on guns and immigration than her). She'd govern like a true Leftist just as Obama has. There's no chance you'd see anything like welfare reform or a cut in the capital gains tax like we got from Bill.
Bill was a pragmatist and he was willing to take what he could get (in more ways than one). He schmoozed well, even his political opponents kind of like the guy. He was oleaginous but not in an evil way, just in an ultimate political animal way. Interestingly, I'm not sure he really had a political soul, the bedrock foundation that he built governing on, unless it was communication, pragmatics and untruths. Bill was pretty great at all three. Hillary just one. The wrong one. Big difference.
Bill had a narrow view of foreign affairs, I think he loved extending his hand overseas, but struggled with extending America's influence (I'm referring to extending it in all the good ways). But he was blessed with a time where there were ultimately fewer bad players surfacing (some had yet to surface), ones you would have to deal with.
And a full-throttle economy didn't hurt him much.
It was a relative "easy"time to be president (which means the job was only slightly less debilitating than normal) and he was just the "easy" guy for the time.
Much less a Kennedy than a Harding or Cal Coolidge.
I would bet that you get Carson, then Bush then Kasich....
If either Kasish or Bush (especially Bush) overperfom in SC it would give them some reason to hang on until the SEC events coming up in March, If Bush underperforms in SC (where he brought out the big Bush guns), it is hard to see a path to a win, even in a brokered convention, where Rubio would be the likely pick.
Kasich might hang on a bit, but there is too much of the small college professor in him (not an insult by the way) to ignite the crowd. Small college professors are often beloved by those that get to know them (Kasich in Ohio) but that doesn't always translate to the bigger audience.
He will hang on, trying his luck in the west/mid-west.
But tonight is a pretty big night.
I think Jeb is done if he does not do well in SC. Politico’s article “Bush staff float resumes” says they are reaching out to consultants for jobs. When asked about it, Jeb replied I don’t read Politico, it’s trash. A classic non-denial denial. Like Moe says, Kasich will probably hang in through the Midwest primaries, where he is strong on the ground. Don’t know about Carson but don’t see him making much of a difference either way.
I wonder if we are headed to an open Republican convention (aka brokered) where nobody wins on the first ballot and then all bets are off? Last one was in 1948. This can force strange bed-fellows. A Trump – Cruz ticket, anyone? Why do you think Rubio would have the advantage if the convention is brokered?
Rubio wins in November. IN a brokered convention that makes all the difference. Regardless of Cruz's schtick, he's pretty consistently conservative, has the right backstory AND he's a great communicator.
Q5 - I think there's a common thread driving support for Trump and Sanders, but I don't think it's quite the same. Trump draws a lot of support from people fed up, but also from staunchly white-supremecist types. Not tryign to inflame here, just stating facts. Polling shows that among southerners who wish the South had won the civil war, Trump takes the cake big time. I think they're angry at establishment republicans, and rightfully so. On the Sanders side, I think a lot of his support comes from young liberals who don't remember what it was like before Obama. They weren't around or paying attention to George W Bush. The slightly older young liberals (like me) who remember just how hard it was to get Obama to where he is, and to fight tooth and nail for every accomplishment. And they think Sanders will have it any easier?
Q6 - I thought it was kinda funny to hear the Pope land a punch on Trump about the wall, when the Vatican is surrounded. To be fair, he didn't build it himself :P I don't know a ton about a "right number" for immigrants. I think we should probably make it easier to come here legally, though. I'm personally ok with letting in many more.
Q8 - Yup, that's right. The left wing of the democratic party sees Hillary as too hawkish and prone to centrism. And while I agree on the hawkish bit, I think if people were to take a closer look, they'd find her to be more progressive than they think. She gets lumped in with Bill in that respect. Her message of being the steward for Obama's legacy is pragmatic, and one I agree with. But it's not super inspirational in the way that "We need a revolution!" is.
I seriously don't understand Saunders supporters that think he's the key to a cakewalk of change. Short of literally bulldozing the Capitol, you kinda have to take back the House and Senate.
By 'staunch white supremacists' you are talking about people who believe whites should dominate society and that minorities should be made to 'feel their subjugation' as ISIS puts it regarding non-Muslims?
What % of Americans believe that? I do not know a SINGLE white supremacist and don't believe I have MET one in the last 20 years.
Trump got 35.3% of the New Hampshire vote. What % of that was from the KKK? 5.3% or what?
:: blinks ::
Unless somebody else believes that 10%-20% of Republicans (esp. in NH) are staunch white supremacists, I'd like to call this an unfortunate comment and move on to the next subject.
Trump wins, Jeb out.