Losing Streaks
the moral of the story is ...



Profession - shtick

Training and Education - once owned a 1988 Bill James Abstract

Likes - Seattle Mariners, molcajete, cats, think tank amigos

Dislikes - Any food that is greeen, reptile "pets" (lizard brains don't requite human affection), Seattle Mariners (also don't requite human affection)



Dr. D can sympathize with those amigos who have concluded that the Mariners are cursed.  After all, many historical baseball teams have actually been cursed, such as the Red Sox and Cubs, and their curses lasted about six times as long as the M's current playoff drought.

In this specific case, however, the Mainframe just doesn't agree.  It used to be that a general bone-deep malaise had infected the organization.  Last winter, however, the M's received a bone marrow transplant and the blood markers came back normal - up to and including several "bouncebacks" from previous short-term illnesses.  

The Mainframe groks a simpler idea:  that the M's rotation had two lousy turns of the carousel.  Also, then we got two good games from the SP's, and we didn't hit in those two games.  Teams get hot when their rotations and hitters are in form at the same time.  That's all.

Take two wins and call Dr. D in the morning.  Until you do that, no amount of prose is going to make you feel better.  You're not alone:  see Dr. Detecto's "dislikes" on his match.com page.



Bill James calls it "research" when you go back and look at box scores to count up facts.  Well, okay, "research" is the investigation of facts in order to form conclusions, so I guess baseball shtick qualifies in the (much) looser, non-pharmacological sense of the term.  So let's figure out what's typical for an AL playoff team in terms of a losing streak:

The 2015 YANKEES lost 10 out of 11, or as they say in chess the Yankees had a +1 -10 = 0 run, to drop their won loss record from 21-12 to 22-22.  But we're sure the New York fans and press were very reasonable about it.

The 2015 ASTROS had a -7 game losing streak ... that's +0 -7 =0, if you call that a streak (34-20 to 34-27) ... another streak of +1 -8 =0 (dropping from 48-34 to 49-42) ... and yet a third +1 -8 =0 streak.  I just love expressing that as +1 -8 =0.  If you don't like it, well ... put it on your internet profile below, along with the Mariners.  The 2015 Astros, who made the playoffs, had a FOURTH losing streak of +2 -9.  They finished the season with a two-game losing streak, that being in the Division Series.

The 2015 RANGERS had a +7 -15 losing streak, that being to start the season.  They later had a 6-gamer and, the next week, a +2 -9 streak for a total of +10 -21 in a month's time, dropping them from 37 wins and 31 losses to 47 wins and 52 losses.

They did real good for a month-plus to take their record from 50-53 to 79-67 and establish themselves as a playoff team, but they had to wait until August for their good stretch.

The 2015 BLUE JAYS ... oh, we'll get to the point.


The 2016 MARINERS have gone +3 -8 to go from 28-18 to 31-26.  

Stop your crying, you little babies.  Dr. D has a migraine.

Your friend,




Well said, just like a great father!

"Shaddup and eat your spinach!"

Wins come in bunches, non-wins, too.  

We've got a lovely bunch of cononuts---er---wins coming up soon.


Watching Diaz following Paxton lastnight felt like the 2 wins you prescribed.   I get what you're saying and have to agree.

The deeper concern for me is Aoki being anything higher than the 3rd/emergency option in CF.  With Martin almost back that concern is lessened but still there and very real.  CF play has cost the pitching during this stretch and some may even be as simple as the pitcher not having as much confidence in the defense behind them with Marte and Martin both out.   Hopefully "That's the ticket" and most people never realize but it just suddenly gets better with their returning.

I'm just saying,  to the Ms; IF the CF gets inured again, DON'T bring up Bloomquist light to cover.  There are 2 CF in the high minors who can get to balls that none of the guys on the current 25 man can.  Your pitchers and fans would appreciate that.  Even if they didn't realize why less runs were being given up than the current stretch. 


That the M's had lost a mini-battle, but won a larger war with Paxton's and Diaz' showings.  Very unusual how the collective felt so good after a loss...

Since Bat first brought it up, I've been puzzling too at the nonchalance with which DiPoto handles his OF defense.  I'm sure there is thinking going on beyond our perception.  But the enemy has certainly exploited the situation to its favor...


Check out his AA splits....he's KILLING LHP (.362-.467-.489).  This from a guy who made his reputation with his glove.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him get a call with the next OF injury.  it would necessitate a 40-Man move...but don't be surprised.


Curious that he hasn't been called up to AAA. Promoting a relief pitcher from AA to the majors is one thing but position players moving from AA to the bigs is rare. 


As I said, it's very rare. The exception doesn't prove the rule. Regardless, I don't understand why he's not in AAA. O'Neil I get - he's still striking out way too much. But what does Heredia have left to prove at AA? 


No roster other move is required except for Aoki to get an owie or Guti need some time off for medication. I get that they want the rust off and the discipline instilled (his SB/CS mark needs work). I even get that he may be a guy that does need some AAA time to see some more advanced pitching. But rather than see Aoki in CF, I would have liked the FO to run a risk and bring him up for the "taste". I suspect Taylor and Romero are about out of chances. I want to see him soon in LF, with Martin in CF, and Guti/Smith/Cruz rotating about in RF/DH. That would get the salsa beat going, eh, Keith? Wonder if Smith can groove with the Latin beat?

Aoki was a nice idea, but his skill-set and performance are rapidly being overcome by events. Lind also needs to step up more, too, 'cause Lee has little more to demonstrate as a cog in the MarinerMachine


I missed that Bat; he certainly is.  Thanks....

Ricky Ricardo would certainly approve of a Martin-Heredia pairing in the OF.


Lineup OBP and OPS:

Martin .339  .822

Smith  .378  .796

Guti  .343  .820

Cano  .343 .903

Cruz  .379 .903

Seager  .358  .875

Lee  .340  .898


Marte  .308  .685

Ianetta  .314  .654

Clevenger  .298  .592

Aoki  .325  .650

Lind .275  .668

O'Malley  .139  .306

Some of these numbers below the line can justified by their other contributions. Shortstops, Catchers and BU Catchers, in particular, can get a break if they are batting 8-9. But you have to wonder how long the leash is on LF and 1B. Sardinas (.226  .526, but .457 .895 at AAA) has also not got it going in the bigs as a UT, which makes me wonder if Benji Gonzalez (.371  .777 in AA) may be in AAA soon as another alternative.


It's like a Nitrous button on the gearshift button on DiPoto's GTO.  Hope he "knows" it's there...

You still open to Marcell Ozuna?  'course now that the baseball world has come around to your point of view, he might cost just a leetle bit more.


Interesting that on the pre-game show the ROOT crew was at pains to emphasize that Aoki and Lind are "coming around". Hope they're right, but also hope Heredia keeps mashing in the lead-off spot in Jackson.

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