Too many bleepin' 1B/DH cooks!
It's going to be a weird broth

OK, you've likely seen the report:  Segura and potentially another player to Philadelphia for JP Crawford and (get this, if you haven't seen the reports) Carlos Santana, a slow 32-year old-ish man of the 1B/DH variety.  The M's are reportedly "resistant" to getting Santana in the deal. No matter, we will.  At least we will get to hear a whole bunch of "Black Magic Woman" as he comes to the plate.

Move one thread to the right and you'll see my feelings about a straight-up Segura for Crawford swap. Basically we would give up a guy who projects to keep hitting, just like he is (or maybe better) for the next five seasons, or more, and get in return a guy who walks but doesn't project to hit.   In 2021, when DiPoto's plans that we contend, Sudden Segura would be a heck of a MIF to have, considering we don't have any others who can hit.  Crawford, btw, has never hit above .265 in any AA or AAA season or portion of a season.  

Santana is evidently the salary balance guy in the deal:  He's owed $41M over two seasons, Segura $59.5 over four seasons.  Somehow saving $18M means that Segura is expendable.  Seriously, Servais must hate the guy.

So we get a large lumbering switch hitter, who walks a ton (.363 career OBP) and will hit 25 HR's. Oh, he's real expensive.  And we get him for two years when DiPoto has no intention to compete (Don't get me wrong:  Santana has had some fine years.  It's just that he would have been nice a few years ago, or this year...if we weren't selling the farm).  Take a look and you will notice that we have quite a few of those large lumbering guys to fill 1B/DH already. To wit:  Healy, Bruce, Vogelbach.

Adding Santana means that we have to dump Healy or Vogs; you can bet on Vogs.  This is really weird, considering Vogelbach just might be a bat to have around in '21....when we're supposed to compete.  But how would we really know....because Servais won't play him.

It wouldn't surprise me if we add an OFer (which could mean Gamel).  Dumping Santana means Philly can move Rhys Hoskins to 1B and get his atrocious glove out of the OF.  It would also make them a player in the Harper sweepstakes.  But they don't have an obvious LF sitting around, considering Aaron Altherr has started to K at an alarming rate and completely crashed and burned in '18.

Perhaps we resist getting Santana, but that just means we get somebody else expensive and not any better way down the road when we want to compete.  Maybe that would be a RP like Pat Neshek.

All the same, this one smacks of brain-addled crazy to me.  That is, unles Segura is a total dillweed in the lockerroom or unless we really think JP Crawford is an All-Star about to explode.  Lay your bets down on that one.  But if it isn't one of those two, then we're trading away an All-Star bat, at a MIF position, for a few future bucks.

Now we get a whole bunch of Gordon at 2B this season, but weirdly, we can't play him a whole bunch in '20.  His contract states that if he gets 600 '20 PA's or 1200 '19-'20 PAs, then he's guaranteed for '21.....for just pocket change less than we would be paying Segura.  So there is the real possibility that we get Gordon for three seasons (I suppose we can just let him go in '20) and Segura for zero.  And for all that, we would save just under $15M in '22 dollars, which might be sort of like Monopoly money.  

What was it Hunter S. Thompson said?

Edit:  It looks like Nicasio might be the other guy we send that way, balancing out the salary cost of Santana over Segura.  If it is Nicasio, we may have to send $5M or so to make it right.

Comments

1

I don’t want to make assumptions on the expected career tracks of youngsters like J.P. Crawford. The kid has some serious on base skills, and power develops. Did anybody see Jose Ramirez coming? Can You imagine a Segura for a minor league and MLB cup o coffee Ramirez being hailed by the baseball experts as a get?

Still, I can’t go along with this makeover. I don’t understand it. How can you rip apart a team that had a lineup of Segura-Haniger-Cano-Cruz? That is serious firepower. How can you complain about an ace like James Paxton and a Marc-O Gonzalez as your #2, and Leake and LeBlanc following? How can you complain about a closer like Edwin Diaz? Our problem is the second tier: the guys who get exposed, like Seager, Zunino, Gordon. So, what we do is we cast off our first tier to bring in a new unproven second tier, and make them the first tier? None of these guys are a guarantee to produce like the players we already have. The guys they are replacing are among the best in their positions and will be so for the next 3 seasons.

Do what the Red Sox do...and what your first tier does. Put on your big boy pants and double down on the front line talent, and keep your best prospects. If you have a bare cupboard with no best prospects, then hitch up,your big boy pants and triple down and rebuild it...and fire whoever it was that made the farm system so pathetic. Instead, we are firing the guys who actually produce.

All the Mariner organization has right now in surplus is front line talent, a devoted fan base who will come to the publicly financed ballpark for reasons beyond winning, and a lot of money. They put 89 wins on the board with what they currently have. Nobody they are currently counting on in the next 3 years to win 85 games is seriously going to fade during that time. Cruz and Cano will put up the numbers they are doing during the coming three year stretch. These aren’t a 40 year old Edgar with faulty eyes, or a juiced up mediocrity like Brett Boone we got lucky with. Our ace isn’t a 41 year old Jamie Moyer who guiled his way to 21 wins. Rather, it is a 30 year old power and dominant lefty with a fresh arm. Excuse me...was.

Pete Carroll remade the Seahawks, casting off all the old guys. But he did not cast off anyone who are premier at their positions. These guys: Cruz, Segura, Paxton, Cano...are premier players at their positions.

You find the right manager and give him this team...he’d find a way to continue to win with it. You find an owner with vision...same thing.

Reload and rebuild. We don’t know if these new kids will develop. We can be pretty certain they aren’t going to be Cruz, Segura, Paxton, Diaz anytime soon. You don’t grow these kind of players on trees.

Hope I’m wrong, but I’ve grown tired of watching this movie.

2

Paxton for prospects I can get.

The Cano trade, I can get.

This trade, I am struggling to get.  I'm stuck on the possibility that Segura was a lockerroom menace...but he better be a terrific one, as .305-.350 MIF's with decent gloves don't grow on trees.

4

With the current projected line-up, even sans Paxton, Cano and Diaz, this team is sort of competitive.

Bruce might hit well enough to be a decent DH and we have a new C who can hit some.  Buy a couple of bullpen arms and hope Gordon bounces and we might sniff .500.

I think the loss of Segura would put a hit on that possibility.  A Crawford/Gordon MIF could be glovey, but isn't likely to hit with punch.

Santana at DH or 1B and Bruce/Healy/Vogs producing at the other, would provide some of that punch.  Is it enough to cover the loss of a .300 hitting Segura?

6
tjm's picture

We're not even saving that much money overall in these deals, so what's the point? Why on earth are we so desperate to shed Cano and Segura that we have to absorb Bruce and Santana? If instead of those two guys we got actual prospects I could be persuaded. Now? You can tell by the number of question marks in this paragraph that I'm confused.

Been an M's fan for 35 years. Might not get to 36.

7

Totally with you on this trade, Terry.  You can argue that we bought prospects of significant potential value with Paxton and with Cano, but not in this case.  Not even close.

Segura isn't broke,  he's durable...and he isn't even 29.  The guy hits and will continue to hit.  So you don't like him at SS, move him to 2B.  Or LF.  

You want to know how not broke he is?  B-R lists each player's month by month hitting stats, 6 months to each season.  Since 2016, Segura has had one month at .224BA/.568OPS (last Sept/Oct).  His next worst month is .229/.616.  After that it is .250/.640 (this past July) and then .269/.708.  Over the last 3 seasons, B-R 18 months of data, Segura has OPSed below .708 three times, and below .759 4 times.  He's sort of slump resistant.  And lest anybody says, "Ah...but two of those bad months were in '18!" just point out that he hit .382, .350 and .318 in May, June and August.

Then point out that his K rate has dropped three years running (to a career best last season) and that he hits frozen ropes all over the field, so you can't shift him into oblivion.   Oh, and that 5 years from now, when he's 33 and still doing that, his $15M will look pretty dang cheap.  

Don't get this one at all.  IIRC, the point of this rebuild was to focus on '21.....This does nothing of the sort, unless DiPoto thinks Crawford hits like Segura-lite.  I'm not seeing that.

8

Theory 1:  The Cancer theory.   Jean Segura is a clubhouse cancer.  Servais expected clubhouse veterans to reign Segura in but no one supported him except Dee Gordon.  Servais asked JeDi to get rid of everyone.

Theory 2: The Dominican Theory:  Management and the Dominican players, except for Boomstick have reached Loggerheads.  The Dominican faction grew too strong and staged an insurrection againset Servais' leadership.  Servais asked JeDi to get rid of everyone.  They don't bring Boomstick back, and trade Cano and Segura.  (I refuse to believe that Boomstick was part of any of this).


Theory 3: The Trade Allotment Theory: JeDi sets a personal goal of making 50 trades per year.  He is churning the roster to keep it oxygenated and keep his regular trade pace.

Theory 4: The Wuss Theory: Servais and JeDi decide that the team is too soft to ever beat the big boys.  JeDi agrees to trade everyone Servais thinks is a wuss. 


Theory 5: The Combined Theory: JeDi likes to churn his roster as part of a mulching regimen.  He hates eating dead cost or any sign of a stagnant roster.  Also advanced metrics tell him Cano is slowing down with the bat and may hit a wall. Servais thinks that Segura dogs it and is setting a bad example for younger players.  MVeteran players don't hold Segura accountable.  Managment sees 2018 as the best shot for competition and don't think it is getting done with the current crop of players JeDi decides to sell high on Sugar and commit to a full rebuild.

10

You get the sense (between the Pazos addition and the Bautista instead of McNeill switch) that DiPoto gets so far down the trade rathole that he can't back out.

Will add this to what moj had to say:  Segura, Cruz, Cano, Colome, Erasmo, Diaz, Nicasio, Heredia, Miranda....basically every Latino player, minus Felix and Elias (did I miss someone?), has been let go, in one way or another.  There is a potential PR slap upside the head coming.....if you consider the accusations made about anti-Latino bias.    OK, we do add Narvaez and Santana, but you can see where I'm heading.  Now, I'm not at all buying into the anti-Latino schpiel, but you can anticipate some folks pointing fingers.

And it would be something that DiPoto might have anticipated.

 

11

It’s over.  You’ve finally gone too far.  It’s your emperor-has-no-clothes moment.  It’s only a matter of time. 

You’re gone.

For a while it was fun to see how many trades you could make.  An ADHD GM seemed refreshing.  But you don’t win pennants by making the most trades.  You win by amassing the most talent.  And you have no idea how to do that.

But at least now we know why there were so many swaps.  The other 29 general managers salivate when they see your name pop up on their phone screens.  Because by the time the call is over, they know they will have fleeced you.  You are incompetent.

What’s more, you are weak.  When they ask for more and more and more—you cave.  When they refuse your meek request for a prospect that will at least give us a hint of hope—you cave again.  You are not a general manager.  You are a pretty boy spokesmodel playing a general manager.

Your line was so inviting at first.  You were going to do it your way—a new way. So you hired a manager who’d never managed before.  You hired a director of player development who doesn’t know what he’s doing, either.  But you assured us they were great on “the mental side”.  I hope you’re ready to think deeply about losing 100 games every year until they show you the door.  Because that’s our future.

And even if every allegation that Lorena Martin made was a lie…how did that ‘new way’ hire work out for you? (I’ll wait to have you assure me that jettisoning Latinos Cano and Segura and Diaz and Cruz and Nicasio and Colome and Heredia in a few weeks was just a coincidence.)


You told us about ‘control the zone’…and how Dee Gordon could play center field.  He couldn’t…but with your tutelage, he walked last year at a rate lower than every other player in major league baseball.  Control that.

You imply you’re just building a financial war chest for 2021?  Maybe Trout and deGrom will last until free agency.  But even in your wildest dreams, do you think there is enough money in Seattle—Amazon and Microsoft included—to get them to jump into the cesspool you’ve created?   

So far, this winter you’ve shipped out four All Stars for a couple of longshot lottery tickets.  You are the laughing stock of baseball.  And so are we.  Thanks. 

This afternoon I cancelled my season ticket package.  Have John Stanton give me a ring when you’re gone.  

12

Santana, Healy, Bruce, Vogelbach.   Right now, Bruce has no trade value.  If he hits in '19 like he did in '17, then maybe he does a year from now.  But for that to happen, you have to play him.  But you have to play Santana, too, now that you bought him with an All-Star.  At $20M per, he's a large load you can't just swap out easily.....unless we eat a bunch of that $20M.  Are there teams who will send us a sweet-ish prospect if we send them Santana and eat $10Mx2? If not, the two old guys collide with the playing time you should give the two youngs guys, at least if you are really looking toward '21.  Oh, you can reduce that collision if you move Bruce to LF, where he collides with the young guy you already have out there.

Sigh.

So Vogelbach is a goner.  Servais didn't like him either.

Maybe we should have just swapped out Servais instead.  He will be gone soon enough, anyway.

How does DiPoto go about selling '19?  He can't now go buy multiple significant and exciting FA's, as Bruce and Santana have gobbled up much of the cash we might have saved.  If we can trade out Santana, our best 1B/DH, for a MLB-ready-to-go prospect, then might be able to laud all we've added.  If not, he can't sell '19 as an exciting look at new youngsters....as only Crawford and Sheffield fit that description.  

This team may win 85 games, but who will really care?

Once we sell Leake, our rotaion is Marco, Felix, Elias, Justice and LeBlanc.  Our relievers will be something out of an Abbott and Costello routine:  Who's in the bullpen?  

What was it that Colonel Kurtz said?  The horror, the horror.

13

Without some significant bounce from two of these guys, Seager-Crawford-Gordon might just be the most hitless IF in baseball.  Seager hit 13 GB's to/through the left side of the infield last year, ones that weren't of the swinging but variety.  He hit 19 LD's to LF.  He hit one HR to LF.  Back in '16, it looks like he had 20 GB's and 30 LD's.  If he can't again figure out a way to go the other way, the shift has doomed him.

14

230/322/383

2018 season stuck in neutral as hand/forearm/shoulder injuries limited pedigreed prospect to 49 games. Glove work should earn AB; PX/Spd give hope for potential power/speed asset. But waning contact% at advancing levels, lackluster hard contact and expected power cast doubt that this'll be the year.

16

I just don't see the rationale. (And the 'money off the books in 2020' argument doesn't justify the swap here).

Jerry should have walked away.

I'm willing to call the Cano trade a potential minor win, and the Paxton trade defensible even if it seems light. This trade is unjustifiable.

I'm not done with the Mariners. But I question DiPoto's sanity right now. I like the guy, but I am waiting for a better explanation than what he gave us. Segura went from a huge get to a huge gone, all in the name of salary relief and a post-hype prospect (at best).

17

Lookout Landing has an interesting analysis, based on the $ value of FWAR. They conclude that, if Crawford performs as expected on his rookie contract, he makes this all worthwhile for the Mariners over time. 

Personally, I'm with you: I'd prefer they had picked up one of the Phillies' young stud pitchers, and hung on to Pazos. But... Jerry didn't check with me, before he pulled the trigger!

19

But it does help me walk back from the edge a bit. At least there's A 'reasonable' rationale that could end up a technical win for the hometown nine.

We really need to get what we can for Santana's mildly positive contract, and that'll help. Hopefully Crawford takes a step and beomces a solid regular who doesn't need to be platooned. It's good to realize he doesn't need to be an All-Star for this to work out.

Still. I'd have held him and traded him at the deadline. You could get so much more when there's a need in the middle of a pennant race.

20

Note what Arizona got for ONE YEAR of Goldschmidt.  And they took on no bloated contract.

Contrast that with what we netted for four affordable years of Segura.

Jerry is taking this franchise down in flames.  Deciding to rebuild...and knowing how to rebuild...are two different things.  

21

I saw that Diderot.  They get a young MLB pitcher with some promise, a highly-rated catching prospect (.278-.373-.395 in 755 AAA PA's...their #3 prospect, labeled as possibly the best MiLB defensive catching prospect), a promising AA MIF with pop AND a Round B pick.

We wuz robbed.....

22
tjm's picture

And Segura is a SS!!!!!My goodness, he must be the worst clubhouse guy in the history of clubhouses.

Unrelated question. Well, not really. What have we gotten out of the DiPo drafts? The answer to that should guide us in our evaluation of the returns we've gotten on these trades. Does Jerry know prospects?  I know nothing about the minor leagues. Someone please tell me Jerry is better than me.

24

Brings back (bad) memories of following Veeck the trader in Chicago.  I won't bore people here by repeating my lament...but he once traded away four young guys in one offseason who combined to play in 14 All Star games.  Got a couple aging sluggers in return who did little to nothing.

In your link, the writer mentions the trade show aspect of the winter meetings.  The son of a very good friend of mine is a principle for something called the Axe Bat.

If you're interested, you can check it out here...

25

How many of us would have preferred Arizona's return to what we got...

a) from the Yankees for Paxton?

b) from the Mets for Diaz (remove Bruce and Swarzak)

And, how many of us would accept that as a reasonable  return for Hanigrr? 

I like the sound of Weaver, and Kelly. I hope Jerry D spoke with the Cards, before going "all-in" with the NYY/NYM. (And, it's unclear that St.L's major need was an ace LHSP, or the top closer. 

27

If you guys scroll back a few pages you get to my “Meet me in St. Louis” thread, right here in fact:  https://seattlesportsinsider.com/?q=blogs/meet-me-in-st-louis

There I speculated that we could get Weaver, Kelly and Martinez for Paxton and Colome.  

Maybe Paxton and Pazos, as things worked out.  I think that kind of trade was there.

But Sheffield, Thompson-Williams and Swanson is a fine swap.  I won’t kick at what we got for Paxton.  

The trade with the Mets was off-kilter in that DiPoto was so concerned about his sunk Cano contract that he was unwilling to walk away from a bait and switch ploy that (evidently) dangled, then excluded, McNeil.  I also dislike this trade in that it seems Bruce has been told that he’s staying and playing in the OF.  I don’t quite like playing him to try and build his trade value at the cost of  it playing Gamel and Bishop.  I think the value in Bruce is to assume you’re not getting a team to eat much of his salary, even if he hits for 3 months, so you make him real cheap, right now.  Trade him now and eat $10M per 2 seasons.  Or $12M.  If he comes essentially free, except the lost prospect, you might get a contender....maybe an Atlanta, to move in on him now.

Getting Narváez for Colome was a fair trade.  But I betcha we could have got Kelly for him.

Getting Smith for Zunino was a decent swap, too.

But I still don’t get the Philly trade.

28

we are looking at an Astros type rebuild. 

29

I think Haniger is off to Atlanta, for a haul, at the Winter Meetings. We need starters, relievers, catching, strong hitters; they need a corner outfielder. We can auction  him off to the highest bidder- but Atlanta seems to have the best combo of Need and Farm.

I don't think Santana breaks camp with the M's. Yankees, maybe? Do we want Bird, or Voit, or Frazier, or Florial, or pitching coming back?

30

If we ship Haniger out, I want three all-but-no-doubt prospects back. I want to keep the guy... but long-term, what we should be able to get for him right now probably outweighs the benefit of keeping him. Atlanta can meet the demand, for sure. I'll leave the package configuration to others with more experience and background, but I want to look at the deal when we're done and have zero questions about whether the guys involved are solid... like the Sheffield and Dunn questions.

I doubt we get anything too flashy back for Santana. Just give us someone legitimate, that's going to be considered a real shot to contribute to our next good team - not just a throwaway.

31

Sodo Mojo has a proposed "generous" swap for Haniger (Wright, Anderson, Pache, Beck) that I would be all over, in a heartbeat! They suggest the Braves might balk at giving that much... but that the point is the Braves must blow Jerry away if they want Mitch. If they offer something like this I'm definitely listening!

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