POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - Dr's R/X


Q.  If the M's got Fielder as well as Iwakuma, does SSI count that as a double offseason?

A.  Without a doubt.  This is a $12M pitcher.  

Hey, where baseball is going now that the CBA's in place, what is $12M?  Is that 2.5 WAR or is it 2.0 WAR?  Iwakuma could easily earn $20M in Safeco, as Doug Fister was doing last year.

You're talking a Garza, Gio type impact probably ... Give or take the Taijuan, Hultzen and Paxton that WSN coughed up for Gio.


Q.  Bottom line?

A.  The balm that salves our Doug Fister heartbreak. :- )  Hey, you don't suppose they had their eye on Iwakuma when they shed Doogie, do you .... Naaaaahhhhhh.

Last year, I was incredibly frustrated that just as we came up with a Michael Pineda ... Texas came up with an Alexi Ogando who, though not appreciated enough, was 95% of what Pineda was.  Stealth mode.

Maybe the M's turn the tables this year.  Maybe as Ogando was to Pineda, now Iwakuma is to Darvish?


Q.  Would you rather have Iwakuma than Millwood?

A.  The Suppan - Moyer - Millwood scrap heap does not provide the comparables on this guy.

The question, in the minds of many NPB fans, is whether you would rather (in year 1 and year 2) have Iwakuma or Yu Darvish.  I think it's a fair question, though I'd take the 94 mph.


Q.  Would you deal Iwakuma for ... Doug Fister?

A.  I'll guarantee you that the Mariners would.  I'm Fister's biggest fan, and I'd have a very tough decision at that point.  It says here that Hisashi Iwakuma can peeeeetch, amigo.

Call them comps.  If you were pining for 1 Felix 2 Pineda 3 Fister, here you go.  The M's would be good with Iwakuma in that slot.

Iwakuma doesn't have a long ways to go, to comp to Gio Gonzalez and Matt Garza, if you ask me.  Over the 3-year scan, I might go something like Darvish > Gio > Iwakuma > Garza > Buehrle.  You got a WBC star whose game is U.S.-oriented before he even gets here.  I'd be psyched.

Make It So,

Dr D


ghsot's picture

Just FWIW,
Fielder is reportedly seeking an opt-out clause in his contract now.  The reason is clear to me.  He's gotten two significant feelers - from the mariners and Nationals - both from teams that are lousy and in lesser-known markets and both carrying significant risk to his celebrity and his happiness.
He was hoping someone more credible would hop in there but no one has....so now he wants assurances that he won't get locked into a Soriano-esque long deal with a lousy franchise for the rest of his career.
I think an opt-out clause would make it more likely that Fielder signs with the Nats though...because if he is hurting too much to play first well in three years....he can opt out before it start screwing up his value and move to the AL at that time.
I am gravely concerned that Seattle's interest in Iwamura comes as a plan B to Fielder...not as a nice complementary piece.


Agree - Iwakuma doesn't nearly trade off for Fielder ...
Lonnie and I are supposed to do a podcast tomorrow, and first Q he wants to tackle is, suppose there's no Fielder.  ... if it turns out that Fielder doesn't want to play in Seattle at all -- and the fair presumption is that he will go to the highest bidder, period, after this milking process by Boras -- 
Then I for one am not blaming the M's for that.  They appear likely to turn their attention to other impact bats in that event.
The M's have done that in the past, dipped the toe in on a big name, and then retreated.  But that's not their design this time.


Dare we even ask the price :- )
Lot of movement all over baseball this year, trade and otherwise.  Don't remember teams so willing to wheel and deal.
Wish that Z would get a big deal primed and then issue an ultimatum to Fielder.


This opt out clause business is ridiculous.  A player is paid money for services.  When the money is good, he should perform the service.   If Prince doesn't want to be tied to a team for ten years, he shouldn't demand a ten year deal.  If he wants to test the water after three years, he should sign, in the baseball industry parlance "a three year contract".
Most of the time, a players is paid even if he plays poorly, or even if he is injured, and does not play at all.  Fans all over baseball have to live with players that their teams are carrying on the pay roll who are making more money than they are worth on the baseball free market.  Gil Meche gave some of his money back to the Royals by releasing the organization from its contract, but no other free agent has done it before or since.
So now we hear that Prince wants a ten year guaranteed contract for him, but a three year opt out if he doesn't like his club?  That puts him in the rare company of A-Rod!  If you remember, A-Rod signed the biggest and longest sports contract of all time, and then complained and publicly demanded a trade three years into it.
A player who signs a long term trophy contract should at least put in a good faith effort to live up to it, and not to complain unless his trophy pay check bounces.
If Prince Fielder is an A-Rod class prima donna, then maybe we don't want him around anyhow.  If he hates the though of lowering his standards to play for the Mariners or Nationals, maybe we don't want him around either.  The reality is, that Prince can play for any team in baseball if he lowers his price enough.
A greedy player is one thing, but a greedy player with no sense of good faith and fair dealing with regard to his contract is quite another.

ghost's picture

depressingly agreed.
I don't see a lot of viable ways the Mariners can contend in the next three years without Fielder or someone as valuable...and the someone as valuable, if it's not Fielder, will cost us a huge chunk of the supporting players we were going to use to flank him.  It's a heck of a lot harder to build a winner by trading prospects for prospects or trading for good players from teams who, for whatever reason, no longer want those good players (that's usually a bad sign about the supposedly good player).  I don't think it can really be done.

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